BRU: Monthly traffic figures 2013

[teach]

Anyone have an idea how big an influence the SN strike in November had on the numbers?

[fcw]

Anyone have an idea how big an influence the SN strike in November had on the numbers?

I would say a minor to marginal effect.
BruAir caries around 10000 pax on an avarage day in November. . Two days of strike, 20000 pax or 1,3% of the monthly total for the airport, BUT not all the flights were cancelled and many passengers were rebooked on other airlines, so my guestimate would be less than 0,3%.
I do expect the BruAir loadfactor to increase as a result of the strike though as the flights which were not cancelled had an almost 1000% loadfactor.

[RoMax]

Anyone have an idea how big an influence the SN strike in November had on the numbers?

I would say a minor to marginal effect.
BruAir caries around 10000 pax on an avarage day in November. . Two days of strike, 20000 pax or 1,3% of the monthly total for the airport, BUT not all the flights were cancelled and many passengers were rebooked on other airlines, so my guestimate would be less than 0,3%.
I do expect the BruAir loadfactor to increase as a result of the strike though as the flights which were not cancelled had an almost 1000% loadfactor.

Actually it is not that simple, SN saw an increase of 1,5% in November (which would have been more without the strike), but a decrease in loadfactor. In the days of a strike, passengers tend to avoid booking new tickets with the airline having that strike (I'm not talking about the booking for weeks or months in advance but days or even hours) and people who have a ticket tend to cancel or delay their trip. So quite some pax will have to be rebooked on the existing flights, but even more passengers move or cancel their trip with SN. The end result is a lower loadfactor. I expected huge loadfactors in April 2010 (the month of the ash cloud), but actually that wasn't the case. Since that moment I realised there is much more behind it than just the people that get stuck and need to fly.

[LJ]

December

Pax
Total number of passengers +6.2% (to 1,312,202)
Arriving
Total arriving pax + 5.9% (623,036)
Departing
Total departing pax + 6.6% (to 689,166)
Originating + 5.2%
Transfer + 12.2%
Transit + 20.2%

Movements
Total movements + 0.8% (to 15,579)
Passenger flights + 0.4%
Cargo flights + 9.9%
Non-commercial flights -/- 1.0%

Cargo
Total cargo (tons) + 9.4% (to 37,787)
Full Freighter -/- 11.8%
Integrator + 49.3%
Belly cargo + 6.2

Steady growth this month, especially on the pax side. Cargo increased as well thanks to DHL (integrator surpassed full freighter this month).

[LJ]

Full year 2013

Pax
Total number of passengers +0.9% (to 19,133,222)
Arriving
Total arriving pax + 0.7% (to 9,505,454)
Departing
Total departing pax + 1.0% (to 9,627,768)
Originating + 1.1%
Transfer -/- 3.4%
Transit + 9.1%

Movements
Total movements -/- 3.0% (to 216,678)
Passenger flights -/- 3.4%
Cargo flights -/- 3.9%
Non-commercial flights + 1.4%

Cargo
Total cargo (tons) -/- 6.4% (to 429,938)
Full Freighter -/- 20.5%
Integrator + 19.6%
Belly cargo -/- 9.0

Despite a good run the last few months, BRU didn't pass the 20mio pax mark (though this will be done next year). BRU sites low fare and long hauls as the main contributors to the very good performance.

Cargo didn't perform well, though there are bright spots here (thanks to DHL) and things can't go any worse for the full freighters.

[sn26567]

Despite a good run the last few months, BRU didn't pass the 20mio pax mark (though this will be done next year).

That's of course what we all hope (and I suppose that when you write 'next year' you mean 'this year'), but how can you be sure?

The arrival of Ryanair, the expansion of Vueling, additional planes for Brussels Airlines, all these factors of course will have an influence, but will that mean an increase in the number of passengers, or will these new entrants just take away passengers from other airlines?

[lumumba]

Despite a good run the last few months, BRU didn't pass the 20mio pax mark (though this will be done next year).

That's of course what we all hope (and I suppose that when you write 'next year' you mean 'this year'), but how can you be sure?

The arrival of Ryanair, the expansion of Vueling, additional planes for Brussels Airlines, all these factors of course will have an influence, but will that mean an increase in the number of passengers, or will these new entrants just take away passengers from other airlines?

Or from other airports!

[Sabena320]

Yes we can be proud that BRU has done such a great job! An astonishing 0,9% growth in passenger numbers, while airports like AMS and FRA will or have recorded a +- 3% growth. Very good news that connecting passengers fell by more than 3%, that the movements have shrunk again (-3%) and also in cargo we performed excellent with only a 6% decline in cargo... Well done!

[LJ]

That's of course what we all hope (and I suppose that when you write 'next year' you mean 'this year'), but how can you be sure?

The arrival of Ryanair, the expansion of Vueling, additional planes for Brussels Airlines, all these factors of course will have an influence, but will that mean an increase in the number of passengers, or will these new entrants just take away passengers from other airlines?

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but we're talking about a 4.53% increase on a yearly basis only. As you mention the fight between Ryanair, Vueling and Brussels Airlines will mean higher pax figures (at least initially). Furthermore, if EK indeed start BRU ops as of August 2014 then you would have an additional 77W in the pax figures (I don't expect Jet to leave BRU in 2014 as I don't expect that EY will do anything which may upset Indian regulators, though this is a big uncertainty). Finally, the economy seems not teo be getting any worse (or even better, thus this may help as well.

and I suppose that when you write 'next year' you mean 'this year')

I'm still have to get use that we live in 2014

[RoMax]

Yes we can be proud that BRU has done such a great job! An astonishing 0,9% growth in passenger numbers, while airports like AMS and FRA will or have recorded a +- 3% growth. Very good news that connecting passengers fell by more than 3%, that the movements have shrunk again (-3%) and also in cargo we performed excellent with only a 6% decline in cargo... Well done!

What's more important to look at, the final quarter. Pax numbers in the last months were much higher and cargo finally started to stabilise (growing year-on-year, but cargo was already declining in the last quarter of 2012 so...). Besides, when comparing BRU, it is much more valuable to compare them with airports like CPH, ARN, ZRH, MAN, DUS, DUB,... instead of the main European hubs.
About the connecting passengers, yes a negative trend indeed, but I think it's much more valuable to look at transfers within the Star network served to/from BRU and I'm quite sure you'll see a climb instead of a decrease. Less Jet Airways and AA flights are a main factor in decreased transfer numbers.

Talking about movements, yes they are decreasing once again, but the trend in the fourth quater once again was much more possitive than in the previous months. Also the average loadfactor and size of the aircraft serving BRU has never been higher. And you also have the non-commercial flights which have been decreasing for a long time already. Movements is one thing, but it's not the whole story.

Taking into account average results for Europe, BRU had a relative good year, except for full freighter traffic.

[nordikcam]

Thx Romax.
Could u compare traffic figures in BRU CPH and ZRH for exemple ?

[liege-bierset]

If i' m not wrong DHL are still representing 20% of total cargo at BRU in 2013.
As we know, they have started to build a huge extension at Liepzig. Doubling surface and increasing sorting capacity by 50%.
Do we already know what 's gonna be the impact on sub-hubs as BRU. More direct flights or modifications in their Spoke and Hub design.
http://www.dhl.com/content/dam/Local_Im ... l_size.png

[LJ]

Yes we can be proud that BRU has done such a great job! An astonishing 0,9% growth in passenger numbers, while airports like AMS and FRA will or have recorded a +- 3% growth.

I understand your sarcasm, AMS had a growth of 2.89% (from 51.03mio to 52.5mio). In fact, the BRU growth rate is still the lowest of all airports in BeNeLux which have reported so far (pax figures). However, FRA will release its data on the 15th, but YTD November figures were +0.7%, thus the growth rate will probably in line with BRU's . However, I agree, BRU's performance is not so outstanding as the press release seems to imply (where did they get their data from?).