Boeing 747-8 news

[RoMax]

The delays are building and building. Already years of delays in development and testing and even more delays will come as the production ramp up goes slower than expected. This is not going to end soon...

Anyway, for the 748F. RC574, also known as G-GSSD, wich will be the first 748F for Atlas Air but will be leased to BA and is in full BA worldcargo livery, is supposed to be delivered on 28 October and will fly home on 30 October. This is not confirmed, but several sources say this and at the moment everything is going to plan to get this one delivered on 28 October.
First delivery to Cathay seems to be delayed a bit, but should also happen between now and let's say 10 November.

[RoMax]

Boeing indeed set the initial accounting block for the 787 on 1100 deliveries. This is a historical high number and means that it will take Boeing more than a decade (as from now) to be profitable on the 787.

Furthermore Boeing has lowered it's number of expected deliveries of 787's and 748's for this year. They now plan 15-20 deliveries for the 748 and 787 combined. The previous number was 25-30 and before July 2011 it was even 25-40.
At this moment there are 4 delivered; 2 787's for ANA and 2 748F's for Cargolux. Another 748F is about to follow on Friday (first delivery to Atlas Air/BA Cargo), altough that is still not officially confirmed.

[RoMax]

B-LJE (the first 748F for Cathay) is expected in Hong Kong on 1 November. So delivery should be around 29-30 October. And as mentionned before the first Atlas Air/BA Cargo 748F should be delivered on 28 October.

But both are subject to change.

And Boeing declared the delay of the delivery of the 748i and the 789. The first 748i will not be delivered this year, but in early 2012. The reason is the delayed certification as they found several things that they had to redesign or change (just like with the 748F). But as these changes are not all the same as on the freight version this asks quite some time again. But certification is still expected for this year, first delivery (a BBJ) will be in early 2012.

For the 789, delivery slipped from late 2013 to 2014. Air New Zealand (the launch customer) already said some weeks/months ago that they will not get their first 789 in 2013. But for a long time, Boeing declined this. Now they admit they are probably not going to be able to deliver the first one in 2013. They say they keep working on getting back on the "2013 EIS shedule", but I doubt this will happen, I rather see another delay (during FAL, testing, ...).

[DeltaWiskey]

For the last time, accounting block/quantity is NOT break even point, not even close.

I'm not going to try to explain it anymore, from annual report 2010:

Accounting Quantity The accounting quantity is our estimate of the quantity of airplanes that will be produced for delivery under existing and anticipated contracts. The determination of the accounting quantity is limited by the ability to make reasonably dependable estimates of the revenue and cost of existing and anticipated contracts. It is a key determinant of the gross margins we recognize on sales of individual airplanes throughout a program’s life. Estimation of each program’s accounting quantity takes into account several factors that are indicative of the demand for that program, including firm orders, letters of intent from prospective customers and market studies. We review our program accounting quantities quarterly.
Commercial aircraft production costs include a significant amount of infrastructure costs, a portion of which does not vary with production rates. As the amount of time needed to produce the accounting quantity increases, the average cost of the accounting quantity also increases as these infrastructure costs are included in the total cost estimates. This has the effect of decreasing the gross margin and related earnings provided other factors do not change.
The accounting quantity for each program may include units that have been delivered, undelivered units under contract, and units anticipated to be under contract in the reasonable future (anticipated orders). In developing total program estimates, all of these items within the accounting quantity must be considered.

[RoMax]

- B-LJE, the first 748F for Cathay Pacific is delivered today and is currently on his way to HKG!

- The 748i finished certification testing, Amended Type Certificate is expected for the comming weeks. First delivery for early 2012.

- Post-certification testing and additional testing for the unique VIP and airline interior configurations will continue in the next months.

[RoMax]

Something I didn't mentionned before. But the 748i is the first four-engine aircraft to be ETOPS certified. Back in 2007 the ETOPS rules were updated and it was decided to include four-engine aircraft as from 2015. But Boeing decided to include the ETOPS testing in de 748i certification ahaid of the requirement.

Due to the simularities between the 748i and 748F, also the freighter version will be ETOPS certified altough it didn't perform ETOPS testing itself (as the customers didn't needed it)

[sn26567]

Cargolux began operating a Boeing 747-8F on its 5X-weekly freighter service to Budapest Airport.

Today ANA's Boeing 787 flies its first scheduled flight (the previous flights were charters).

[RoMax]

B-LJA will be delivered on 11/11/11, it's the second one for Cathay Pacific and has the special "Hong Kong Trader" as this was sheduled to be the first delivery, but as B-LJE was faster finished (due to more rework on LJA) B-LJA will be the second to be delivered.

A 3th for Cathay is sheduled for 18 November.

The first 748F for Atlas Air/BA World Cargo is sheduled to arrive in STN this Friday, so delivery is for this week, exact day unkown (as it was already delayed a few times).

[RoMax]

The first 748F for Atlas Air/BA World Cargo is sheduled to arrive in STN this Friday, so delivery is for this week, exact day unkown (as it was already delayed a few times).

It arrived this morning at STN. So now there are 4 B748F's delivered (2 Cargolux, 1 Cathay and 1 Atlas Air/BA Worldcargo)

DAE replaced 5 of their 748F orders (from a total of 15 if I remember well) to 5 777F's. All their 748F's were planned for Emirates SkyCargo, it seems Emirates is quite happy with their 777F's.

Furthermore Cathay Pacific said they are going to evaluate the B748i and A380 again during 2012. Cathay looked at the 748i a few years back when the 748i was still a "paper-airplane". They still didn't decided if they go for the 748i or for the A380. They decided to wait until the 748i enters service to see how it operates/performs. Cathay said they could place an order for 10-20 A380's or B748i's, but they wouldn't order both as Korean Air and LH did as they don't think that will work for them.

[RoMax]

Picture of the first 748F for BA World Cargo (Atlas Air) at arrival in STN:

http://www.gssair.co.uk/images/gssdwater.jpg

[RoMax]

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... rs-364346/

Atlas Air recently cancelled 3 of their 12 748F's on order, but they do not rule out new orders (they still have 14 options).
Atlas Air cancelled 3 of the 748F's because they didn't meet their expectations related to the performance of these early 748F's. But they claimed the other 9 they have on order (including the first one they took delivery of recently) are better performing and will meet their requirements. So they are looking at using a part of their options to place new orders for the 748F as it are only the early, bad performing 748F's they didn't want.

Atlas Air took delivery of their first 748F on 2 November, 2 more will follow this year, 4 in 2012 (two in the first half, two in the second half), the last 2 will be delivered in 2013.

Despite the first delivery Atlas Air is still in negotiations with Boeing about compensation for the delayed 748F's. They decided to take delivery of the first 748F before these talks are finished (unlike Cargolux wich cancelled their first delivery) because the aircraft needed to start flying for BA World Cargo as fast as possible.

For Cathay Pacific, their second 748F (B-LJA) made it's first flight on 4 November. The B-1 flight was planned for 3 November, but several problems were discovered during the pre-flight tests, so flight was delayed to 4 November to resolve the problems. The flight on 4 November was performed without problems. If there are no new issues found the delivery should take place somewhere in the comming week, possibly around 8-9 November.

[RoMax]

If there are no new issues found the delivery should take place somewhere in the comming week, possibly around 8-9 November.

A delay until 14 November was requested due to unkown reasons.

[RoMax]

At November 10, Boeing held a B747-8 employee appreciation event with the Steve Miller band and "Jet Airliner", this took place in hangar 40-23 next to the 748 FAL. That hangar was the former static test position of the 787, now used for the 747 and 777 post FAL modifications.

The 5th delivery of the 748F should take place in the next days to Cathay (their second), it will be B-LJA, wich is in the special Hong Kong Trader paint sheme.
Cathay expects to get 3 more 748F's this year.

Atlas Air who already got the first 748F for BA World Cargo expects to get 2 more (all for BA World Cargo) this year, the rest will follow in 2012 and 2013.

The first 748F for Air Bridge Cargo is about to be delivered in early 2012, their second is about to leave the FAL on 16 November.

[RoMax]

B-LJA was delivered, the second 748F for Cathay. The 3th for Cathay, B-LJB was doing taxi tests recently and should be delivered in the comming weeks.

[RoMax]

Deliveries for the 748F seem to be running smooth. Already 5 delivered and 2 (1 for Cathay and 1 for BA World Cargo) are currently in flight tests. Boeing will probably deliver 10-13 748F's this year. This is freeing up quite some place on the aprons of Everett...and this place seems to be needed...

Why? The 787 deliveries are (contrary to the 748F deliveries) running very slow, slower than expected. Only 2 are delivered yet and Boeing will probably only deliver another 2 in December (no deliveries in November).
Previously it was planned to deliver 5-6 787's this year (of which 5 for ANA).

The two that will be delivered are two quite lately build 787's: L/N31 (which will start flight testing next week, probably and will be delivered in the first or second week of December), the second is L/N41 which is about to start flying early December and to be delivered in the 3th week of December.

You may think...and what's happening with the early build 787's? These need so much rework that Boeing has really dificulties to get them ready for delivery, only a few of the "finished" (out of FAL)787's have engines already. And some of them are GEnx powered engines, but these are not certified yet, and probably Boeing will not deliver a GEnX powered 787 this year.

So in short: 748F deliveries are running smooth, 787 deliveries are running slow (due to enormous rework).

[earthman]

It's not like Boeing started making 747s yesterday, so I suppose the difference between the -400 and -8 is small enough that they produce the -8 as fast as the -400?

[RoMax]

It's not like Boeing started making 747s yesterday, so I suppose the difference between the -400 and -8 is small enough that they produce the -8 as fast as the -400?

It's not just about production speed (as this simular or even lower as we see with the 787). The already producered 748F's just do not need so much rework, they can be made ready for delivery much faster.
Currently there are much more 787's already produced, but these need much more rework.

[RoMax]

B-LJF delivered today, that makes 8 748F's delivered (2 Cargolux, 2 BA World Cargo (1 of them delivered, but still in Seattle) and 4 Cathay Pacific).

[RoMax]

The 3rd 748F for Atlas Air/BA Cargo (btw, the last for Atlas Air that will go to BA Cargo) is making its final flight before delivery tomorrow. That will be the 9th delivery of a 748F and probably the last for this year. As much people as possible will concentrate on getting out some 787's out and as every year, Boeing will shut down for the holidays at the end of December until early January.

[RoMax]

G-GSSF (3rd 748F for Atlas Air/BA Cargo) was delivered yesterday. This is the 9th 748F and the last one for this year (2 Cargolux, 3 Atlas Air, 4 Cathay Pacific).

Mid-January Korean Air Cargo will be the next airline to get it's first 748F.

According to inside Boeing sources, Boeing will try to get 4 787's out this month, and not 2 like first said. It is said they are placing 748 people to the 787 to get them out by 31 December. But this seems extremely optimistic, 2 yes, 4 ... Of the 4 that are said to be delivered this month, only 2 have flown (one is doing customer tests before delivery, the other one was used for ETOPS testing and is being prepared for ANA, but it's the question if they get this done before year-end) another one is about to be flying for the first time. Normally there is about 2-3 weeks between first flight and delivery, so they really have to rush to get these 4 delivered this month.