Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

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sn26567
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Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by sn26567 »

Swiss International Air Lines (LX) is deciding how best to replace its fleet of 15 Airbus A340-300s. The price of the new aircraft will be an essential element of these talks. The choice is between the Boeing 777 or an unspecified Airbus model, this is part of ongoing negotiations.

Swiss CEO Hohmeister did not give details on which type of 777 or Airbus aircraft is being considered, but the carrier would prefer an aircraft size that offers more seats than its 228-seat A340-300.

The carrier will take delivery of its 14th and 15th Airbus A330-300s from April to October 2013, one A320 in February and one A321 in March 2013.

It expects to take delivery of the first of up to 30 Bombardier CSeries regional jets, which will replace its Avro fleet, from mid-2014 onward.

Source: ATW online
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RoMax
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by RoMax »

I wonder what aircraft they look at with Airbus, it can only be the A330-300 and A350 versions.

But by saying the price will be essential this will become a dangerous game between Airbus and Boeing again. Boeing will be VERY willing to offer the 777 at very low prices (it's their most profitable program, they have a lot of room in it to offer huge discounts) to steal Swiss partly away from Airbus on the widebody side. On the other hand Airbus will try to do everything to keep Swiss with Airbus and staying with Airbus will mean less extra maintenance and training costs for Swiss.

On the other hand, the 777 is already present in the LH Group fleet with Austrian and they'll double their fleet by 2014 (from 4 currently to 8 at the end of 2014).
So contrary to the short/mid haul fleet they are not Airbus-only on the long haul side (Lufthansa is also looking at the 787, mainly 787-10 for future expansion and A333 and A343 replacements).

So an interesting battle, but I don't hold my breath for Swiss ordering the 777. I would say Airbus has about 60% chance to win this order compared to 40% for Boeing (due to the technical superiority of the 777 and the aggressive pricing strategy they often use).

convair
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by convair »

I would think the recently announced group purchasing policy of LH will be at work here.

The 777s of Austrian could be of relatively small influence, but we see LH has ordered a few 748s. Still the chances of a 777 look dim to me in this case. Maybe the bigger version of the 787 then.

On the other hand, is it logical to replace 340s by 330s, although both LH and Swiss are still adding new ones to their fleet? Maybe 350s make more sense as fleet renewal but is the timing critical for Swiss?

Btw, LH has a good number of 340-600s, including relatively recent ones. I don't remember seeing any comments on this a/c type's performance. Can someone give some hints in that respect?

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RoMax
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by RoMax »

convair wrote:I would think the recently announced group purchasing policy of LH will be at work here.
Indeed, though the 777 doesn't fit in that idea. So I believe LX wants a relative fast replacement, something the A350 can't offer.
convair wrote: On the other hand, is it logical to replace 340s by 330s, although both LH and Swiss are still adding new ones to their fleet? Maybe 350s make more sense as fleet renewal but is the timing critical for Swiss?
As with the A350-777 story, it depends on how fast LX wants their aircraft. For the capacity it is possible to replace the A343 with the A333. In LX's configuration the A333's have 8F 45J 183Y and the A343's have 8F 47J 164Y (tough I don't know if they currently all use the same business and first class seats?).
convair wrote: Btw, LH has a good number of 340-600s, including relatively recent ones. I don't remember seeing any comments on this a/c type's performance. Can someone give some hints in that respect?
I don't know about the A346 performance, it will be better than the A343, but still seriously less than that of the 777 and new A350. Some time ago there were rumours that LX would replace their A343 with the A346, but apperently they stepped away from this or it was a stupid rumour again.
Btw, I remember LH commenting on their 748i order, by saying that if they didn't commit to the A340-program so early (political pressure, altough they'll never say that in public) they wouldn't have ordered the 748i either. Because in that case they wouldn't have such a big A340 fleet, but a (their own words) more efficient 777-fleet and with the 777-300ER making the 748i unneeded.

It's strange LH commented on the new fleet strategy by naming the A350 and 787, while LX now says they look at the 777 and Airbus models. That makes me believe the A350 and 787 are for the longer future, while the 777 and/or A333 may have a longer future within some parts of the LH Group. But if they open the door for the 777, they also open the door for the 777X which may have advantages over the A350 (in the 77W/A350-1000 size).

So in my idea that's a quite strange thing for LX to do. For me it's not clear if this new order is going to be for the real long future or fast replacement. For the long future it just isn't 'right' that they look at the 777 (when you keep the LH fleet strategy in mind).

convair
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by convair »

Thank you Mr_Boeing for these interesting comments.

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RoMax
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by RoMax »

Swiss CEO confirmed they consider the Boeing 747-8, the 777 and the Airbus A350 to replace the A340-fleet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-2 ... hansa.html

The 777 and A350 are no suprise, but the 748i. Quite step from A340 (even the -600) to the 748i. But they say they want to go bigger (but A380 is too big), so it may make sense. The fact that LH already uses the aircraft (and seems to be happy with the performance) and that it isn't really Boeing's biggest sales succes (pushing down the price for airlines that are interested) may have a big influence. But of course, the A350 will be used in the LH Group in the future without doubt. So I'm not sure which aircraft it'll be.

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by shockcooling »

Can this be an indication for the new longhaul ac for Swiss? Or just LH only?

http://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa- ... ermanwings

http://www.air-journal.fr/2013-02-20-lu ... 67430.html

(Btw; what do you think of the last part of the French article? Good news for SN maybe)

Boavida
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by Boavida »

If Swiss goes for the B747-8, is there any chance SN will get them aswell in the future?

*dreaming* ;)

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by Flanker2 »

LH better take a dozen A320NEO for SN, to cross-use on Africa/Europe.
The extra range of the A320NEO willl make A320 operations possible on 60% of SN's African network.
But I can keep dreaming.

Otherwise, I think that the widebodies will be 8 B748i's for LX.
If Swiss goes B748, I hope that SN gets their junked up A343's.

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by Passenger »

Flanker2 wrote:
If Swiss goes B748, I hope that SN gets their junked up A343's.
Some wake up with a SN-phobia.
Others fall asleep with a SN-phobia.
And a few wake up and fall asleep with a SN-phobia.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by tolipanebas »

Word has it Lufthansa is going to order 6 77W for SWISS as they need planes bigger than their A343 today and thus can't wait for the group's decision on a combined 787/A350 order as delivery of that is many years away.
It's not the first time Lufthansa has ordered 'unexpected types' if a particular need justifies doing so and the 777 isn't such an odd bird to them as some here think: have a closer look at their cargo devisions...

Lufthansa is said to be ordering 2 more A380s too, BTW.

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by teddybAIR »

Flanker2 wrote:...I hope that SN gets their junked up A343's.
for what particular reason?

Flanker2
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by Flanker2 »

teddybAIR wrote:for what particular reason?
Cheap frames?
Passenger wrote:Some wake up with a SN-phobia.
Others fall asleep with a SN-phobia.
And a few wake up and fall asleep with a SN-phobia.
You must be too much into SN-philia because it seems like you read criticism where there is none.
Junked up A343's are just fine for SN, it's better than the current situation of 1 additional A330 per year, no?

You better pray that they get those A343's.
The A343 can open new possibilities in Asia, South Africa and South America.

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by RoMax »

tolipanebas wrote:Word has it Lufthansa is going to order 6 77W for SWISS as they need planes bigger than their A343 today and thus can't wait for the group's decision on a combined 787/A350 order as delivery of that is many years away.
It's not the first time Lufthansa has ordered 'unexpected types' if a particular need justifies doing so and the 777 isn't such an odd bird to them as some here think: have a closer look at their cargo devisions...

Lufthansa is said to be ordering 2 more A380s too, BTW.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.asp ... 550951.xml

A 77W-order for LX comming very soon and a bigger A350/787 order comming later this year, at least according to 'inside-sources'. ;)

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by summersso »

RoMax wrote:On the other hand, the 777 is already present in the LH Group fleet with Austrian and they'll double their fleet by 2014 (from 4 currently to 8 at the end of 2014).
Sorry RoMax, from where do you have the information that Austrian will double their 777 fleet (if I understood you correctly!)? Please provide a link/more info if possible. Thanks.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by tolipanebas »

RoMax wrote:
tolipanebas wrote:Word has it Lufthansa is going to order 6 77W for SWISS as they need planes bigger than their A343 today and thus can't wait for the group's decision on a combined 787/A350 order as delivery of that is many years away.
It's not the first time Lufthansa has ordered 'unexpected types' if a particular need justifies doing so and the 777 isn't such an odd bird to them as some here think: have a closer look at their cargo devisions...

Lufthansa is said to be ordering 2 more A380s too, BTW.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.asp ... 550951.xml

A 77W-order for LX comming very soon and a bigger A350/787 order comming later this year, at least according to 'inside-sources'. ;)
The LH Group will most likely also order 30 C-series to replace 100-seating regional jets at is subsidiaries... Austrian has 15 Fokker100s ;)

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by RoMax »

tolipanebas wrote: The LH Group will most likely also order 30 C-series to replace 100-seating regional jets at is subsidiaries... Austrian has 15 Fokker100s ;)
15 F100's (the also have 9 F70's btw) and 12 RJ100's => 30 CS100's No, I'm probably just dreaming again.
Anyway, there are already 30 on order "for Swiss", according to LH to replace the 20 LX RJ100's in de first place, but last year they commented that there is no final decision yet on what to do with the remaining 10: Expansion for Swiss, or partly relocating some orders to other parts of the LH Group. But "to replace regional jets at its subsidiaries", that may also mean Lufthansa Regional (or Germanwings that will take a part of the CR9-fleet)?!

Anyway, so it seems like: 108 orders quite soon (probably 100 A320/321NEO, 6 77W and 2 A388), a bigger 787/A350 order later this year and another 30 Cseries... A big year for Lufthansa's future fleet it seems.

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by sn26567 »

RoMax wrote:Anyway, so it seems like: 108 orders quite soon (probably 100 A320/321NEO, 6 77W and 2 A388), a bigger 787/A350 order later this year and another 30 Cseries... A big year for Lufthansa's future fleet it seems.
A good reason to forego the" dividend this year!
André
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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by Flanker2 »

RoMax wrote:
tolipanebas wrote: The LH Group will most likely also order 30 C-series to replace 100-seating regional jets at is subsidiaries... Austrian has 15 Fokker100s ;)
15 F100's (the also have 9 F70's btw) and 12 RJ100's => 30 CS100's No, I'm probably just dreaming again.
Anyway, there are already 30 on order "for Swiss", according to LH to replace the 20 LX RJ100's in de first place, but last year they commented that there is no final decision yet on what to do with the remaining 10: Expansion for Swiss, or partly relocating some orders to other parts of the LH Group. But "to replace regional jets at its subsidiaries", that may also mean Lufthansa Regional (or Germanwings that will take a part of the CR9-fleet)?!

Anyway, so it seems like: 108 orders quite soon (probably 100 A320/321NEO, 6 77W and 2 A388), a bigger 787/A350 order later this year and another 30 Cseries... A big year for Lufthansa's future fleet it seems.
The CS100 will cost SN more to operate than the RJ100:
CS100 monthly cost: fuel 500.000 lease 300.000
RJ100 monthly cost: fuel 600.000 lease 35.000

The Cseries will win on maintenance costs, but I don't think that it will make up for the cost difference.
In the beginning it will bring a lot of teething problems too.

You want SN to go broke? Then the CS100 is your plane.
So much for "Flanker is a Bombardier salesman". :lol:

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Re: Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

Post by Flanker2 »

According to information on the net, the CS100's will all be for Austrian/Tyrolean F70/F100 replacement.
At this point, I would wish for SN to get a line-up of Q400 nextgen's and wait for Embraer NEO's or MRJ's.

LX is very stupid to go for B77W's now.
No matter how cheap they are, the B77W will be 25% less fuel-efficient than the A350-1000.
The difference on fuel consumption during a 100.000 hours lifecycle could be around 150-200 million dollars per airframe, which is the full cost of 2 B77W airframes after discounts.

On regional jets, a cheaper airframe can make fuel efficiency obsolete, but on a widebody that is in the air more often than it's on the ground, burning a lot of fuel, fuel efficiency is much more important.

LH's lack of long-term vision had them waiting too long to order B787/A350 and now that Airbus and Boeing have huge backlogs, LH will have to pay more for the airframes and wait longer.

It's better for LX to get B748i's or better even some used A346's. The A346 is just perfect for them. They will need their capacity on the trunk routes, the greater cargo capacity of both aircraft vis a vis of the B77W and the commonality with the LH fleet makes them easier to integrate than the B77W, while they wait for their 2020 XWB deliveries.

Boeing can give away B748i's, while Airbus has some A346's to spare.

B77W is all wrong.

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