Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Join this forum to discuss the latest news that happened in the world of commercial aviation.

Moderator: Latest news team

Post Reply
User avatar
BrightCedars
Posts: 827
Joined: 01 Sep 2005, 00:00
Location: Brussels, Belgium

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by BrightCedars »

We're way off topic here and maybe this would warrant a topic of its own.

I have to agree with what is said above. It's suicidal to forget about the amount of China-Africa and to a lesser extent India-Africa traffic flows.

However, I can see many reasons for SN not to go down that path:

1. SN partly belongs to LH who prefers to go down that path itself;
2. If SN starts flights to China it will hit competition from day one on BJS and PVG (or HKG) will need a solid investment they cannot support right now;
3. If SN starts flights to India it will hit competition from day one on all 9W routes.

One has to admit that the policy of attracting carriers from those nations instead of supporting the start of our own service there was based on short term political motivation. This is now cornering SN away from growth areas.

I'm sure if IAD, JFK or both are real bad for SN they will not hesitate to cut the losses. However there may be more to benefit to being present in the TATL alliance than may seem.

SN should definitely cherry pick some protected markets from carriers like AF and go after TNR once a weekend. They could also look at serving medium range Mediterranean points that can support their Africa and/or North America connections notably ALG, ALY, BEY, CAI, CMN, THR, TIP, TUN, etc. Better timed TLV connections should also come to mind.

As for the 3rd North American destination, not counting a potential split up between SN and AC over YUL and YYZ, I would think a US West Coast destination is needed i.e. LAX, SFO, or a cleverly picked airport in CA.

HighInTheSky
Posts: 426
Joined: 29 Aug 2008, 12:58

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by HighInTheSky »

As many others I decided to stop posting in this forum, but now some false info is posted so I want to set some things straight:
sean1982 wrote: I know from a reliable source btw that SN was offered by LH to operate a daily ACC flight ...
Lufthansa will only fly 4 weekly 30MAR-18JUN and 5 weekly as from 19JUN, so I'd say it was a good call to pass on the daily ACC flight.
sn26567 wrote: SN (Sabena as well as (SN) Brussels Airlines) never flew to Accra.
As pointed out, SN operated flights to ACC some years ago, but the competition was too fierce between SN, LH and VS.
The Star Alliance pax were divided between LH and SN with the result that both a/c left ACC with only 50% LF. That's why SN canx the route and LH downgraded to Privatair BBJ.

Now, about IAD: the route has its ups and downs, especially in Y, but C is full or at least 80% LF on most flights. Also the amount of (pharmaceutical a.o.) cargo is huge.

The plan is to change the timings to an earlier flight, but the problem is United: they don't like SN in one of their main hubs, and are trying very hard to make work as difficult as possible so that SN would back off IAD.

sean1982
Posts: 3260
Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by sean1982 »

HighInTheSky wrote:As many others I decided to stop posting in this forum, but now some false info is posted so I want to set some things straight:
sean1982 wrote: I know from a reliable source btw that SN was offered by LH to operate a daily ACC flight ...
Lufthansa will only fly 4 weekly 30MAR-18JUN and 5 weekly as from 19JUN, so I'd say it was a good call to pass on the daily ACC flight.
sn26567 wrote: SN (Sabena as well as (SN) Brussels Airlines) never flew to Accra.
As pointed out, SN operated flights to ACC some years ago, but the competition was too fierce between SN, LH and VS.
The Star Alliance pax were divided between LH and SN with the result that both a/c left ACC with only 50% LF. That's why SN canx the route and LH downgraded to Privatair BBJ.

Now, about IAD: the route has its ups and downs, especially in Y, but C is full or at least 80% LF on most flights. Also the amount of (pharmaceutical a.o.) cargo is huge.

The plan is to change the timings to an earlier flight, but the problem is United: they don't like SN in one of their main hubs, and are trying very hard to make work as difficult as possible so that SN would back off IAD.
Ok fine so, instead of daily it's 5 weekly :roll:
Are you denying the fact that LH approached SN about operating this flight and SN turned it down in favour of IAD?

BRUMRU
Posts: 14
Joined: 08 Dec 2009, 20:16

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by BRUMRU »

BrightCedars wrote: SN should definitely cherry pick some protected markets from carriers like AF and go after TNR once a weekend.
I would have loved to have seen SN in the Indian Ocean, esp as AF and AirMad more or less have control over TNR. But I just read that Turkish Airlines will start an IST-TNR-MRU flight perhaps decoupling TNR and MRU at a later date:

http://www.lexpress.mu/article/turkish- ... ue-maurice

Of course nothing to stop SN going after TNR as well, but I'm pretty sure Turkish would have more than one weekly flight, so SN going there once a week might not be so great I guess.

(Sorry this is offtopic on Brussels Airlines' second US destination, but just wanted to reply to Bright Cedars.)

b720
Posts: 891
Joined: 04 May 2006, 00:00

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by b720 »

Let's not day dream SN has very meagre assets, and funds. Let us remain realist. If the pm IAD flights are
not reaching expectations, maybe the solution will be by moving them to early am? better connection with Africa flights. UA flights depart BRU around noon. I still think that an early evening JFK flight would have been fantastic for SN. SN to Asia, Lat Am etc is not possible under the current situation of the airline. Expansion in Africa, more direct flights, and higher frequencies should work in the short medium run.

Flanker2
Posts: 1741
Joined: 05 Dec 2012, 23:15

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Flanker2 »

b720 wrote:SN to Asia, Lat Am etc is not possible under the current situation of the airline. Expansion in Africa, more direct flights, and higher frequencies should work in the short medium run.
I think that expansion in Africa, more direct flights and higher frequencies is even less realistic

SN is losing ground in Africa, so they can not expand in any way.
The only options are
1.retaliation, ie fighting the war or
2. pulling back.

If SN choose to fight for it, the first step is to recapture that lost ground by establishing sustainable links to Asia. In a second step they can dream about expanding Africa again to gain terrain.

Remember that SN expanding in Asia is the only way to stop TK's invasion into Africa, which is the main cause of SN's shrinking market share in Africa in the first place.

For me it's simple. IAD isn't essential to the development in Africa, UA has the Africa portion covered and if SN want more seats on the UA aircraft, they can pay them for it. In the beginning 2 A332's will do, NRT/HND 4 weekly, HKG 5 weekly, PEK 5 weekly. That will make oxygen flow into SN's operations like straight away, while slowing down TK's expansion. TK will be forced to revise their Africa plans significantly.

If they don't want to do PEK themselves, fine but at the very least they need to start a cooperation with Air China. Hainan is too small a partner, they need more mass and Air China is the flag carrier, which brings all the diplomatic traffic.
For HKG, I see room for cooperation with TNT on the cargo side, but I'm sure that DHL, Fedex and UPS would be very interested to have a one-stop service from China to Africa through BRU, as SN covers a very wide network.

It's on-topic because we are discussing why this second US destination is a burden on SN and why I think that it should be discontinued in favor of Asia and more Africa.

b720
Posts: 891
Joined: 04 May 2006, 00:00

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by b720 »

SN can NOT compete with TK, and the ME3. For a pax in China, and most of Asia it is more convenient to fly into
Eastern/southern,central, and even western Africa through DXB, or ADD. IST remains a better option for most too than BRU. TK and EK offer the possibility of stopovers in IST and DXB without VISA hassles. In TK's case no visas required for many Asian nationals, while EK provides online VISA's within 72 hours of booking an EK flight.
Try getting a Schengen visa,* most Asian nationals (except Japan, S.Korea, Singapore, and H.K.) need. In short SN should stick to its niche markets (AFRICA, EUROPE (including regional airports), and parts of N.America) They need to innovate. They can not beat the major players with 3 or 4 weekly flights to sporadic Asian destinations.

* who in their right mind would want to transfer in a country knowing that they will spend their night in a chair in an empty terminal in case one's plane goes technical or gets snowed in winter? Happened numerous times in BRU.

SN1203
Posts: 129
Joined: 20 Sep 2007, 20:11

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by SN1203 »

@Flanker2: you might want to take a look on a worldmap before you continue with all your China to Africa via Brussels theories. And 14 frequencies to Asia on 2 A330s? Maybe have a look at the online timetable of Lufthansa, Air France or British Airways (beware of the time difference ;) ).
Last edited by SN1203 on 10 Feb 2014, 22:54, edited 1 time in total.

Flanker2
Posts: 1741
Joined: 05 Dec 2012, 23:15

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Flanker2 »

SN1203 wrote:@Flanker2: you might want to take a look on a worldmap before you continue with all your China to Africa via Brussels theories. And 14 frequencies to Asia on 2 A330s? Maybe have a look at the online timetable of Lufthansa, Air France or British Airways (beware of the time difference ).
All that I will say is that smart planning easily resolves that, even with the longer NRT route.
The worldmaps have been posted in the other thread, so I suggest that you take a look at them. It was shown that the great circle track between NRT and DKR passes right over BRU. That doesn't stop TK from feeding their pax through IST... so should the fact that IST is better positionned to cater for China stop SN?

Do you know what happens to a wounded animal who stops fighting for its life?

I think that many people here don't realise how dire the situation is.

A reminder:
Although Turkish is not the leading airline from Europe to Brussels Airlines' key African destinations, it is present in many of them and is growing rapidly into Africa, attracting connecting passengers via its Istanbul hub. In the period Jan-2013 to May-2013, Turkish Airlines grew RPKs to Africa by 42.6% and passenger numbers by 35.0% year-on-year.
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/b ... t-2-116851

Turkish Airlines destinations (red) and planned destinations (blue) as of Mar-2013
http://centreforaviation.com/images/sto ... 04/TA1.PNG

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/t ... t-1-112352

Passenger
Posts: 7266
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Passenger »

Flanker2 wrote:
SN1203 wrote:@Flanker2: you might want to take a look on a worldmap before you continue with all your China to Africa via Brussels theories. And 14 frequencies to Asia on 2 A330s? Maybe have a look at the online timetable of Lufthansa, Air France or British Airways (beware of the time difference ).
All that I will say is that smart planning easily resolves that, even with the longer NRT route.
The worldmaps have been posted in the other thread, so I suggest that you take a look at them. It was shown that the great circle track between NRT and DKR passes right over BRU. That doesn't stop TK from feeding their pax through IST... so should the fact that IST is better positionned to cater for China stop SN?

Do you know what happens to a wounded animal who stops fighting for its life?

I think that many people here don't realise how dire the situation is.

A reminder:
Although Turkish is not the leading airline from Europe to Brussels Airlines' key African destinations, it is present in many of them and is growing rapidly into Africa, attracting connecting passengers via its Istanbul hub. In the period Jan-2013 to May-2013, Turkish Airlines grew RPKs to Africa by 42.6% and passenger numbers by 35.0% year-on-year.
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/b ... t-2-116851

Turkish Airlines destinations (red) and planned destinations (blue) as of Mar-2013
http://centreforaviation.com/images/sto ... 04/TA1.PNG

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/t ... t-1-112352
The reason for TK's growth (worldwide) is not the weakness of Brussels Airlines as you repeat here about five times daily, but the geographic position of Istanbul. CAPA: "...THY’s superior growth owes much to its transfer traffic strategy, by which it has used the geographic position of its Istanbul hub to attract passengers on Europe-Middle East, Europe-Far East and Asia, Europe-Africa and America-Middle East routes. In many ways, this puts it in direct competition with the Gulf carriers that are also using their hubs in a similar way..."

Even the Romans knew this importance of the Bosphorus as geographic top position, as we've all learned (or not learned) at school: Byzantium, Constantinopel, ...

Furthermore, Turkey has 80 mio inhabitants, plus another few mio spread over mainly Europe.

Anyway, let me try to go back on topic: TK flies Istanbul-Accra once daily, with a 737. Three times nonstop, four times a triangle with Abidjan. Strange: only 3 nonstops. One would suggest three times daily with a A380, as shuttle for all those Chinese mine workers in Ghana you've found on the net.


(to fellow member hakan: no offence towards TK)

cnc
Posts: 1311
Joined: 19 May 2009, 16:14

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by cnc »

Passenger wrote: The reason for TK's growth (worldwide) is not the weakness of Brussels Airlines as you repeat here about five times daily, but the geographic position of Istanbul. CAPA: "...THY’s superior growth owes much to its transfer traffic strategy, by which it has used the geographic position of its Istanbul hub to attract passengers on Europe-Middle East, Europe-Far East and Asia, Europe-Africa and America-Middle East routes. In many ways, this puts it in direct competition with the Gulf carriers that are also using their hubs in a similar way..."

Even the Romans knew this importance of the Bosphorus as geographic top position, as we've all learned (or not learned) at school: Byzantium, Constantinopel, ...
i'd say its more thanks to its agressive but well planned expansion and good service. the silk road days are long gone ;)
i think there are enough examples that prove that a strong home carrier is more important for an airport to become a strong hub then its location

User avatar
MD-11forever
Posts: 224
Joined: 21 Jan 2004, 00:00
Location: Molenstede
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by MD-11forever »

Brussels airlines doesn't seem the only one with low load factors this time of the year across the Atlantic. Also LH seem to have that as well on an A380 to/from Houston:

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forum ... n/5992366/

Low season indeed for transatlantic traffic.

Air Key West
Posts: 1107
Joined: 23 Jun 2007, 20:51
Location: BRU

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Air Key West »

I've always heard that the winter season has usually a very poor yield for transatlantic operations, except for destinations which attract a lot of business pax (NYC, WAS).
What about b.air flying an A33O :
to IAD during the summer season
and flying it to MIA in winter ?
And flying, for instance a Privatair BBJ to IAD in winter instead of an A330 ?
Privatair's BBJ has a range of 4,100 miles. Distance between BRU and IAD seems to be 3,880 miles. Technically possible ?
In favor of quality air travel.

Didymus
Posts: 190
Joined: 17 Jul 2010, 15:13
Location: Ghent, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Didymus »

Stopover in SNN on the way there like BA does?

Inquirer
Posts: 2095
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Inquirer »

Previously somebody complained that Brussels Airlines is rather secretive when it comes to their performance on transatlantic flights. While I don't know if other airlines are posting detailed operational results of individual routes, I agree some figures could indeed serve well in this particular discussion as a lot of claims have been posted about how well/bad they are doing, all without means of verification.

Much to my surprise, today's press release on their operational results for JAN offers the unique opportunity to indirectly quantify their operations to the USA, so why not take the opportunity?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=52330

If we take into account that in JAN last year they operated just a single daily NY, it's easy to see that by adding that DC flight, they grew their transatlantic capacity in JAN by 3/7th, or 43%, vs JAN last year (as the flight operates just 3 times weekly during JAN, according to their own booking engine).
It's probably a bit less even as they seem to use the smaller A330-200 for it, whereas the A330-300 does JFK, so say they've added just under 40% or so.

On the other hand, they report a 62% increase in passenger numbers on those 2 flights combined, so clearly they succeed in filling more seats than they have added. I agree we don't know whether that's on the new Washington flight, or the NY, nor do we know at what prices, but what we can conclude is that OR the Washington flight is not nearly doing as badly as some seem to think it is based on a single observation, OR that the NY flight must be doing really well meanwhile, but the idea they are flying empty across the ocean and just wasting their time serving the USA doesn't seem to be supported by statistical evidence, quite on the contrary even.

Flanker2
Posts: 1741
Joined: 05 Dec 2012, 23:15

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Flanker2 »

I've always said that there is always a taker for a cheap flight to New York. JFK was IMO always a low risk, low profit proposition and it will be.

Your calculation of 40% increase in capacity for 62% more traffic sounds correct. The rest of the math isn't flawless though:
Inquirer wrote: so clearly they succeed in filling more seats than they have added
If JFK had 50% load factor in Jan 2013, and traffic increased by 62%, the new load factor would be 81% if IAD is flying empty. In the meanwhile adding 40% of capacity on IAD would have brought the balance to 31 more seats sold for 40 added. The amount of additional seats filled is lower than the amount of seats added.

So you can't conclude that they "clearly succeded in filling more seats than they added" without knowing the load factors of JFK for January 2013. In fact, if JFK was below 68% in load factors in Jan 2013, they clearly filled less seats than they added in Jan 2014.

I think that the measure of more seats filled than added is somewhat meaningless in the first place (and a bit too greedy), because even if you fill less seats than you add, you can still increase load factors, even if it isn't as spectacular.
So SN's load factor would have grown from 50% to 81/140 = 57%, which wouldn't be bad at all in the first place, considering the added capacity.

I congratulate SN on strong traffic numbers in January, no matter if they had to lower their yields. It's a relief to see such performance and hope that it will continue through the rest of the year. However, I would also suggest to stay put, because the upcoming battle against the LCC's will be an uphill one.

Inquirer
Posts: 2095
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: Brussels Airlines' second US destination

Post by Inquirer »

I agree that
Inquirer wrote:they succeed in filling more seats than they have added
can be open for interpretation if you turn percentage numbers into real passenger numbers;
a more universally indisputable way to translate the same percentages in a single phrase is maybe this:
they succeed in outselling their capacity increase.

Post Reply