Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[Inquirer]

Let's say that there is a positive shift and that the trends are encouraging.

With so few data publicly available, its really all one can say for sure indeed.

Gustin and SN have shaved a lot in the past, so I don't see how they can shave another 15%, unless it's achieved through lower actual fuel prices.....

If he's talking about seat unit basis, its not so difficult, I would guess?
Replacing the remaining Avrojets (still over 1/3rd of their EU fleet) by Airbus planes having roughly 50% more seats per plane will go a long way in achieving that.

[Inquirer]

I'm sorry but if a "very good year" means they MIGHT get out of the red? That's not a very good year, that's maybe an "OK year."!

Mind you, the idea they might barely get out of the red is your own estimate for this year.
I agree such a break even performance would be just OK-ish, but then they did exactly that last year.
All external indicators seem to suggest it should be possible to do much better than that this year, hence my calling it a very good year and if Atlantis' (amongst ever more others) recent remarks about their planned expansion for next year is true indeed, then it's adding ever more substance to that qualification:
https://www.aviation24.be/forums/viewtopic ... 20#p322244

[Ricard]

Let's say that there is a positive shift and that the trends are encouraging.

With so few data publicly available, its really all one can say for sure indeed.

Gustin and SN have shaved a lot in the past, so I don't see how they can shave another 15%, unless it's achieved through lower actual fuel prices.....

If he's talking about seat unit basis, its not so difficult, I would guess?
Replacing the remaining Avrojets (still over 1/3rd of their EU fleet) by Airbus planes having roughly 50% more seats per plane will go a long way in achieving that.

They will also gradually add extra seats in A319/320 starting this winter.

[Avroflyer]

Let's say that there is a positive shift and that the trends are encouraging.

With so few data publicly available, its really all one can say for sure indeed.

Gustin and SN have shaved a lot in the past, so I don't see how they can shave another 15%, unless it's achieved through lower actual fuel prices.....

If he's talking about seat unit basis, its not so difficult, I would guess?
Replacing the remaining Avrojets (still over 1/3rd of their EU fleet) by Airbus planes having roughly 50% more seats per plane will go a long way in achieving that.

They will also gradually add extra seats in A319/320 starting this winter.

Indeed ... A319's will get 3 additional seats thus becoming 144Y configured while the 320's would go to a 180Y config

[sn26567]

A319's will get 3 additional seats thus becoming 144Y configured while the 320's would go to a 180Y config

Ouch! That's gonna hurt: it's an LCC configuration!!!

[Stij]

That's no longer a C class then...

Cheers,

Stij

[sean1982]

A319's will get 3 additional seats thus becoming 144Y configured while the 320's would go to a 180Y config

Ouch! That's gonna hurt: it's an LCC configuration!!!

The transformation continues

[sn26567]

A319's will get 3 additional seats thus becoming 144Y configured while the 320's would go to a 180Y config

Ouch! That's gonna hurt: it's an LCC configuration!!!

The transformation continues

Right! Gustin wants to shave the costs by an additional 15%...

[Avroflyer]

It's part of a LH group strategy meaning that LH itself would move to 180Y a320's etc etc to indeed reduce unit costs...

But how it would be structuraly achieved is a big question for me... on the 319 it would be the removal of a galley in the front which would do the trick however a 320...

[convair]

...on the 319 it would be the removal of a galley in the front which would do the trick however a 320...

No galley, no (or less) service!?!

[Inquirer]

Thinking of it, I noticed Lufthansa has indeed been resizing their kitchens on their Airbus fleet for some time now, probably because their catering product of today requires them to have less storage space?
The B.air kitchens are still the big once as far as I know from the days everybody got a hot meal, so making them smaller would indeed make them win more cabin space and thus bring them more seat row(s) for free. No idea what the difference is between a kitchen of an A319 and an A320, if any, however.
But I can see the general idea behind it: those kitchens are probably too big nowadays.

I've been saying this since a long time and it is turning out to be true: some want to reduce their costs further, while others always want to get their product better: all are turning into an easyjet\vueling type of airline, simple as that really.

BTW- easyjet have 156 seats on their A319, so there's still room left for improvement after this.
(a bit of a pun, I agree).

[sn26567]

BTW- easyjet have 156 seats on their A319, so there's still room left for improvement after this.
(a bit of a pun, I agree).

For 156 seats on an A319, you need a second over-wing exit, which very few planes have!

[RoMax]

When competing in Europe with LCCs that fill their aircraft to the limit, there hardly is an option for carriers like SN and all the others. Saying you can sell them for a premium if you offer enough leg room, that's just nonsense, the premium that passengers are willing to pay for a little extra room on such short flights, is much lower than what you save in costs/gain in total revenue by having a higher density configuration. However, it becomes a problem for the longer routes. Put people in an aircraft like that to Moscow, Tel Aviv, North Africa, and they might never use your airline again because there are still better alternatives for similar prices. That's also a doubt I heard from within SN, so I don't know if they will actually retrofit all aircraft?

Btw, this number of seats is no longer 'the LCC configuration', more FSCs or hybrid carriers are moving to such configurations and the LCCs are actually going a step further than e.g. the 180 seats in the A320.

Part of this are the new galley concepts and/or reduction of toilets, that allows them to add more seats while keeping the same seat pitch as with the current slim line seats. Although I'm not sure if that will be the case with SN or if there will be an actual reduction in seat pitch. For the A319 I don't think these 3 seats will make a difference, probably they'll remove a toilet? For the A320 it might be more drastic?

[tolipanebas]

If you want to have an idea of the cabin layout post modification: check Aer Lingus or vueling seatmaps.
They have the same 144 seat lay out on A319, respectively 180 seats on A320.
The modification literally brings the capacity of an additional A319 for free.
And that fleet itself is going to grow by a lot already, next year.
The Airbus fleet is going to be re-centered on A320s over A319s in the coming years too, btw.
Expected pax volumes for the next year(s) are very ambitious: 8M pax is just second place again, sorry. :wave:

[b720]

Vueling seat configuration is horrific to say the least.
Acceptable for 2 hour; however will not wish to be stuck into that seat for 2.5 or 3 hrs .. Think BRU - LIS or ATH flight time plus the 30 min pre flight.

[airazurxtror]

Expected pax volumes for the next year(s) are very ambitious: 8M pax is just second place again, sorry.

It's not impossible, we'll see (whilst keeping your bragging in mind).
But, as they say : don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

[sean1982]

If you want to have an idea of the cabin layout post modification: check Aer Lingus or vueling seatmaps.
They have the same 144 seat lay out on A319, respectively 180 seats on A320.
The modification literally brings the capacity of an additional A319 for free.
And that fleet itself is going to grow by a lot already, next year.
The Airbus fleet is going to be re-centered on A320s over A319s in the coming years too, btw.
Expected pax volumes for the next year(s) are very ambitious: 8M pax is just second place again, sorry. :wave:

8M? We're aiming for 150 million

[Stij]

Topic cleaned up. Stay on topic, don t provoke and don t answer provokations!

Cheers,

Stij

[RoMax]

Expected pax volumes for the next year(s) are very ambitious: 8M pax is just second place again, sorry. :wave:

8M? We're aiming for 150 million

I'm not a fan of such comparisons, no mather in which way, because it is always with the intention on this forum to 'be better than the others' or something. But anyway, IF we do compare, please do it properly. Compare SN with FR in Belgium only. FR always uses their market share in Belgium as a marketing tool in presentations, press conferences, etc. in Belgium and they also don't say hey look we have 80 or 90 or 100 million pax (or in case of forecast, say something like 150) and SN just 6 or 7 or 8 or whatever.

[Conti764]

If you want to have an idea of the cabin layout post modification: check Aer Lingus or vueling seatmaps.
They have the same 144 seat lay out on A319, respectively 180 seats on A320.
The modification literally brings the capacity of an additional A319 for free.
And that fleet itself is going to grow by a lot already, next year.
The Airbus fleet is going to be re-centered on A320s over A319s in the coming years too, btw.
Expected pax volumes for the next year(s) are very ambitious: 8M pax is just second place again, sorry. :wave:

Does this mean A319's will start leaving the fleet as well in favor of A320's or will SN focus on just adding more A320's then A319's, thus growing the fleet?