Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[JustPlanes]

Certainly stats are important but it also depends on the kind of deal you can make....
With Denver they should make a codeshare agreement with United for BRU-DEN and connecting to all the cities from there such as LAS, LAX, SFO, SAN, SEA, PDX and so many others... now Brussels send all their West Coast traffic through DEN and free up space on their JFK/IAD flights for the East & South destinations... so you don't necessarily need a ton of people going to DEN itself...
And at the same time SN can offer connections to all of Europe/Africa from DEN. I have little doubt that this would be a big success... it just requires the airline to go a little bit outside of their normal thinking.

Also the DEN rotation would fit in a 24hr rotation with the JFK or IAD aircraft... SFO is pushing it. And last but not least, DEN roundtrip is probably close to 3 hours less of flying so less expensive to operate.

[Flanker2]

Also proves you're not just a passenger and are much more closely associated with SN than what you claimed

Sean, even I (construction sector) could have thought / be convinced that they base their expansion on data instead of gut's feeling...

Cheers,

Stij

There is not enough and thus not reliable data on most routes from Belgium/Europe to Africa, except the big routes that are not niche routes. DKR/NBO/ACC come to mind. Who's going to give you data about LBV or NSI? In addition, a lot of tickets in Africa are sold off-grid.
So most of it is based mostly on their own work, ie watching competitors closely, gut feeling and trial and error reflected in their very cautious ans progressive route expansions.
You can get plenty of data about BOS and SFO because almost everybody is flying there. But everybody has access to the same data and everybody jumps in at the same time, so no one makes money on those data routes, except for the people selling the data.

[Passenger]

There is not enough and thus not reliable data on most routes from Belgium/Europe to Africa, except the big routes that are not niche routes. DKR/NBO/ACC come to mind. Who's going to give you data about LBV or NSI? In addition, a lot of tickets in Africa are sold off-grid.
So most of it is based mostly on their own work, ie watching competitors closely, gut feeling and trial and error reflected in their very cautious ans progressive route expansions.
You can get plenty of data about BOS and SFO because almost everybody is flying there. But everybody has access to the same data and everybody jumps in at the same time, so no one makes money on those data routes, except for the people selling the data.

It's not because YOU (Flanker) don't find the traffic data for Africa via Google, that they don't exist. I'm pretty sure that THEY (Brussels Airlines) have all figures they need to avoid gut feeling.

In addition, a lot of tickets in Africa are sold off-grid.

There we go again: Flanker's unbeatable Africa knowledge. Reminds me to your Kinshasa blooper, when you were talking about your one minute walk from the airport to the Memling. Actually, you've based your walk on the wrong airport you saw on Google Maps... Same here: "off-grid" is your escape. Actually, it doesn't matter if they book on their (off-grid) (online) iPad or the bush tamtam. What matters, are the airline figures.

[Flanker2]

There is not enough and thus not reliable data on most routes from Belgium/Europe to Africa, except the big routes that are not niche routes. DKR/NBO/ACC come to mind. Who's going to give you data about LBV or NSI? In addition, a lot of tickets in Africa are sold off-grid.
So most of it is based mostly on their own work, ie watching competitors closely, gut feeling and trial and error reflected in their very cautious ans progressive route expansions.
You can get plenty of data about BOS and SFO because almost everybody is flying there. But everybody has access to the same data and everybody jumps in at the same time, so no one makes money on those data routes, except for the people selling the data.

It's not because YOU (Flanker) don't find the traffic data for Africa via Google, that they don't exist. I'm pretty sure that THEY (Brussels Airlines) have all figures they need to avoid gut feeling.

In addition, a lot of tickets in Africa are sold off-grid.

There we go again: Flanker's unbeatable Africa knowledge. Reminds me to your Kinshasa blooper, when you were talking about your one minute walk from the airport to the Memling. Actually, you've based your walk on the wrong airport you saw on Google Maps... Same here: "off-grid" is your escape. Actually, it doesn't matter if they book on their (off-grid) (online) iPad or the bush tamtam. What matters, are the airline figures.

To each his opinion. I'm not going to be an idiot about it though.
I know what I'm talking about and if you are right, so be it, I couldn't care less. I'm definitely not going to fight over it.

[VEX802]

From airliners.net-forum:

"I think any BRU-west coast would be SN SFO-BRU. They would need the big *A feed provided by SFO and the local market is strong as well. I think with BRU you'd need both. There was a team from SN scoping out crew hotels in San Francisco on the day of the Brussels attacks. They departed early because of this. While the attacks obviously had a profound impact on travel to Belgium, you know where their head will be once things calm down."

[Homo Aeroportus]

From airliners.net-forum:

"I think any BRU-west coast would be SN SFO-BRU. They would need the big *A feed provided by SFO and the local market is strong as well. I think with BRU you'd need both. There was a team from SN scoping out crew hotels in San Francisco on the day of the Brussels attacks. They departed early because of this. While the attacks obviously had a profound impact on travel to Belgium, you know where their head will be once things calm down."

Hmm, and possibly another hint in the mailer SN sent this week ? :

BAIR-header-Trade-NL-590x234-V3-aug16.jpg (114.13 KiB) Viewed 5246 times

SN Mailer.jpg (81.33 KiB) Viewed 5246 times

OK, they referred also to other destinations, see below, but only the above four are illustrated out of which three are current ...

SN Mail_Page_2.jpg (30.5 KiB) Viewed 5246 times

Fingers crossed.

H.A.

[Flanker2]

Fingers crossed about what?

How are they going to operate SFO with their current fleet anyway?
They would need a couple of A332's with the range to do the route and I doubt that yields will be high enough to make an A332 viable.

Also, don't count on connections to/from Africa.
The return trip would take more than 24 hours, so you can't connect on to SN'S morning wave to/from Africa.

Next, yes United has a great hub in SFO, but it's essentially meant as a connecting hub for the Transpac flights. So even if SN codeshare, the flights result in U-turns wherever pax conect on to. There are better and cheaper connecting options already out of BRU, not much of a market there.

Risk: Longer flights bring higher costs. If the route turns out to be a total miscalculation, the risk is very large.

Last but not least: SFO is no New York.
With NYC, SN has the option to fill the plane with cheap dumped tickets, and they are doing just that. With SFO, even a dump will be quite expensive and once there, everything is even more expensive than New York, while it's not as interesting a city in my opinion. So there isn't really a market for low yield pax.
As for high yield pax... seriously, who is going to O&D in business class on this route?

My judgement: Big Negative, stay away, red flag, Russian Roulette.
If SN launch it, I will be curious to see how long it will last. Not long for sure.

[lumumba]

I think Flanker2 is totally right here...

[PjVangerven]

I beg to differ. San Francisco might not be as large as NY but in the Bay Area live about five million People and a large bunch of them is extremely wealthy. Silicon Valley is the economic hart of the USA these days. You would be surprised how many of those companies'employees neede tot be in Brussels for EU matters. Business class will be filled without a problem. Moreover California is a popular tourist destination. More and more Belgians visit the West Coast. Eventhough it is true that for longhaul connections this is not the ideal route, I think BRU-SFO-BRU would be viable, definitely during the summier. (These kind of routes is not ideal for any of the competitors, for longhaul connections). Shorthaul connections are also important. For people from Vienna, Rome, Warszaw, Madrid, Barcelona, Hamburg, Athens... which don't have a direct SFO connection, flying through BRU can become interesting. The same is to a lesser extent true for Seattle, LA, San Diego, Portland.

[ezis_bis]

Regardless of the destination in North America, isn't it going to be part of the JV anyway?
Meaning (worst case) risks are spread?
I suppose the JV has a better insight where the traffic is

[Bralo20]

Regardless of the destination in North America, isn't it going to be part of the JV anyway?
Meaning (worst case) risks are spread?
I suppose the JV has a better insight where the traffic is

That's indeed something that a lot of people forget about. All TATL routes are operated under the Atlantic++ JV

[Passenger]

Fingers crossed about what? How are they going to operate SFO with their current fleet anyway? They would need a couple of A332's with the range to do the route and I doubt that yields will be high enough to make an A332 viable.

The above offer is not about SFO "with the current fleet". That list with destinations is just a reminder to the clientele that the actual code sharings with United and Air Canada offer a lot of actual possibilities when flying Brussels Airlines to New York, Washington or Toronto.

H.A. Homo Aeroportus clearly referred to it in his mail: "...Hmm, and possibly another hint in the mailer SN sent this week? OK, they referred also to other destinations, see below, but only the above four are illustrated out of which three are current..." Thus: "San Francisco - book now" doesn't mean that Brussels Airlines is flying to San Francisco with its current fleet.

Anyway - back to the list. In the monthly Loop overview, sent on 25th August, there was a click to this web page "Chill out in the USA":
https://www.brusselsairlines.com/en-be/ ... s_nat.aspx
Twenty destinations, with one of them indeed: San Francisco, as from 707 € return, departure between 15/08/2016 and 27/03/2017.

(edited after request from a moderator)

[Stij]

Can we please play the ball instead of the player? Thank-you!

[Boavida]

Apart from the discussion about the viability of such a route for SN, it would be GREAT to be able to fly directly from BRU to the US west coast!

[b720]

Why should they fly to the west coast when every single airfield on that coast is covered through their partnership with UA from JFK, EWR, IAD, and ORD? Most wouldn"t mind connecting at one of those points.. and for those who wish to fly to SFO or LAX directly from Europe, daily options are available through partners LH and LX, with just a short hop to FRA or ZRH. A direct SN flight to the US west cost, is ridiculous with the tools they have at hand. They don't have to operate to every city a star alliance airline has a hub at??
SN has other priorities, I would say. BOM is an excellent choice..

[PjVangerven]

Apart from the discussion about the viability of such a route for SN, it would be GREAT to be able to fly directly from BRU to the US west coast!

It reduces travel time with about 30 per cent. I fly multiple times a year to the west coast and the I would prefer to fly directly even if it costs a bit more. If Swiss can do double daily in the summier, SN can definitely do it. And yeah, they don't have the right planes at the moment but since they have to replace their older a330s I think in future that won't be a burden.

[b720]

You can't compare LX to SN, nor CH to B. Two different markets, and very different airlines. I see SN expanding further in Europe, US east coast, consolidating Africa, and maybe even dipping into Asia and the Near East before they look into the US west coast or Lat America.

[Inquirer]

Not sure speculation concerning the next intercontinental destination is best suited in this topic, but wouldn't it be more appropriate for them to focus again on their core business, Africa, a bit more?
It seems their current strategy of expansion outside of Europe is one in which they add a plane which is then used for say 80% on a new non-African route and then the remaining 20% on adding additional frequencies to existing African places.
Why would that be?
Is it really such a gamble to focus on Africa alone?
Are they more of less maxed out somehow, bilaterally maybe?
Don't get me wrong: I like any sort of growth for a Belgian company of course, but I think their attractiveness to others (both to investors as well as to other stakeholders at BRU) lays in their unique African network, not so much in them being yet another European airlines serving transatlantic routes, so they can not be seen to neglect their historic stronghold if they want to make the case for their continued existence as a separate entity somehow.

[travellover]

Perhaps the opening of a route to / from the US West Coast should be an exciting challenge.
Nevertheless, as we can see, the market is hardly convalescing because of 22/3 etc.
Probably SN is cautiously concentrating on their core existing African market, their three North American hubs (- IAD in the winter) and BOM in March. Their plans for opening LOS + LBV will surely activate when a 11th A330 will enter the fleet. So maybe, some A330 could be used a few days as spare aircrafts as the fleet expands and is used intensively.

[ezis_bis]

Are there any intra-European expansion plans?

Finnair has on weekdays 4 flights between Helsinki and Brussels, I sometimes think (as a beholder from here), there must be some room from competition.
Tallinn, as long as Nordica is around (perhaps not so long, as I understood), will not be on the table I suppose. Their prices are outrageous though, but there are quite some cheaper options like SAS (I kid you not), Finnair, airBaltic and Lufthansa which offer connecting flights.
I would like to have a reasonable priced option on direct flights..