EK (Emirates) comes to BRU

[RoMax]

If Emirates comme to BRU. It will be a disaster for Etihad and all other Asia carriers that won't to fly to BRU.

[regi]

What would be the impact on Jet Airways and Hainan ?

[RoMax]

Jet Airways has tons of passangers connecting to Bangkok (same for Etihad). A lot of these pax will fly Emirates if they come to BRU.
For Hainan the impact will be a bit smaller but if the prices of Hainan are to heigh they will have a problem to.

[NCB]

I know that NH will come to BRU, no matter what EK does.
BRU-DXB-NRT is not economical, it's 40% longer than BRU-NRT, which means that the best EK can do is to match NH's fares.

BRU was not able to attract sufficient interest from Asian carriers for the past 9 years. EK coming to BRU should be a blessing for the consumer who doesn't want to pay AF/KLM, BA, LH fares to the Middle East, Asia and Oceania.

There is an alternative to Asia now, Aeroflot. They have changed their schedules and now also have a daytime flight out of BRU on some days (starting January? February?), which connects smoothly to several Asian destinations in SVO.

[Vinnie-Winnie]

Jet Airways has tons of passangers connecting to Bangkok (same for Etihad). A lot of these pax will fly Emirates if they come to BRU.

Says who?

I know that NH will come to BRU, no matter what EK does.

How can you be so sure?

Granted SN's membership in star alliance will help, 787 may help, but ANA could have flown in the past year but hasn't done so! Why now and not before.

when you look at their direct and indirect destinations here on the link provided below, you'll see that they have Europe pretty much covered on a one stop basis. Now if I were NH I'd fly to zurich way before Brussels if connecting to Star alliance partner was that important.

(http://www.ana.co.jp/eng/be/int/others/ ... index.html)

[NCB]

when you look at their direct and indirect destinations here on the link provided below, you'll see that they have Europe pretty much covered on a one stop basis. Now if I were NH I'd fly to zurich way before Brussels if connecting to Star alliance partner was that important.

I'll let you think about what you wrote.
Hint: who already operates ZRH-NRT with A343?
Double hint: Is an additional daily NH B772ER sustainable for ZRH?

About NH's superb coverage: I'll let you thing again too
Hint: if NH have such a superb coverage thanks to LH, why do they even bother operating NRT-FRA with B772ER/B77W when LH has a daily B744 out of FRA and a daily A346 out of MUC? Who makes the money on a Star Alliance codeshare ticket?
Double hint: I need to fly NRT-MXP... one stop with NH/LH + many others OR non-stop with JL/AZ?

Granted SN's membership in star alliance will help, 787 may help, but ANA could have flown in the past year but hasn't done so! Why now and not before.

787 is not going to help, it is the key to opening BRU.
NH has B763ER which doesn't have enough range to operate westbound NRT-BRU and B772ER which is too big to start BRU service. The B788 combines the lower capacity of the B763ER with the range of the B772ER.

And yes, I know that it is being considered very seriously.

Recent developments in HND policy may even twist this further... if NH is to operate BRU, they will need alot of feeding from throughout Japan, which means that they'd probably be more eager to start it up out of HND than out of NRT.
The speed of the process depends on how many B787 slots they're going to snap up from early customers who don't want the overweight aircraft. NH was planning to receive 6 aircraft per year until 2017 but they may actually decide to switch the B783 over to B788 and get 20 deliveries in 2011-2012. They're probably going to keep some B763ER's to operate the Hawaii route and start-up some other routes like BRU, LAS.

[Vinnie-Winnie]

I'll let you think about what you wrote.

That is just so kind of U!

Hint: who already operates ZRH-NRT with A343?
Double hint: Is an additional daily NH B772ER sustainable for ZRH?

And who says NH doesn't buy a block of seats on the A343? And also isn't it the case that airline other than Ryanair tend fly where there is a market?

About NH's superb coverage: I'll let you thing again too
Hint: if NH have such a superb coverage thanks to LH, why do they even bother operating NRT-FRA with B772ER/B77W when LH has a daily B744 out of FRA and a daily A346 out of MUC? Who makes the money on a Star Alliance codeshare ticket?

What if NH flew to FRA because it can sustain a flight on its own and get all the profit?

Double hint: I need to fly NRT-MXP... one stop with NH/LH + many others OR non-stop with JL/AZ?

Who are you? A business pax? A leisure traveller or a Star frequent flier member?

NH has B763ER which doesn't have enough range to operate westbound NRT-BRU and B772ER which is too big to start BRU service. The B788 combines the lower capacity of the B763ER with the range of the B772ER.

Small aircraft long distance: High CASM

Recent developments in HND policy may even twist this further... if NH is to operate BRU, they will need alot of feeding from throughout Japan, which means that they'd probably be more eager to start it up out of HND than out of NRT.
The speed of the process depends on how many B787 slots they're going to snap up from early customers who don't want the overweight aircraft. NH was planning to receive 6 aircraft per year until 2017 but they may actually decide to switch the B783 over to B788 and get 20 deliveries in 2011-2012. They're probably going to keep some B763ER's to operate the Hawaii route and start-up some other routes like BRU, LAS.

Need a lot of feed: Bad for business bad for yields
Let me ask you this: I got a prime and attractive airport which can attract high yielding passengers: What do I do? Divert my high yielding flights to the prime airport or start a new route from the very same airport???

If you ask me to think what I wrote I'm asking you to think about what you are thinking seriously!

[NCB]

NCB wrote:
NH has B763ER which doesn't have enough range to operate westbound NRT-BRU and B772ER which is too big to start BRU service. The B788 combines the lower capacity of the B763ER with the range of the B772ER.

Small aircraft long distance: High CASM

Unfortunately CASM is part of the equation, not the equation itself. Since it only reflects how much it costs to carry a seat for one mile, it doesn't tell you how many big fat *sses you're going to put on a flight with X ASM, which is dictated by the rules of supply and demand. An average load factor of 75% on a B763ER/B788 is equal to an average load factor of 50% on a B772ER.
Generally, the 75-85% LF arena is where your yields are best for a given route/aircraft capacity combination, and to achieve those numbers on a B772ER between NRT and BRU you'd have to go very low on the fares. Whenever you are off those numbers it means that you either aren't charging enough or you are charging too much.
The B788 will offer the best balance between charging 30 000$ per pax to fly scheduled BRU-NRT service on a Falcon 7X or charging 50$ to get 75-85% LF on an all-economy A380 between the two cities.

In one sentence: BRU-NRT can not sustain B772ER service.

Secondly, but not significant in any regards, the expected CASM of the B788 is lower than that of the B772ER anyway.

What if NH flew to FRA because it can sustain a flight on its own and get all the profit?

For what else?

NCB wrote:
Double hint: I need to fly NRT-MXP... one stop with NH/LH + many others OR non-stop with JL/AZ?

Who are you? A business pax? A leisure traveller or a Star frequent flier member?

Star frequent flyer... airlines typically tend to overrate their mileage and alliance programs. Poor stupid passengers who don't realise that they're being screwed and paying more than they would save. Poor stupid airlines who invest useless money into mileage programs while the select ones who use them really have no other choice or choose them because they are the cheapest anyway. Business pax want non-stop flying and frequencies, leisure travellers care less but will certainly not choose the expensive LH/NH combination. NH even shuttles their Benelux pax all the way down to CDG while they could all take a LH feeder to FRA out of BRU or AMS...

Need a lot of feed: Bad for business bad for yields
Let me ask you this: I got a prime and attractive airport which can attract high yielding passengers: What do I do? Divert my high yielding flights to the prime airport or start a new route from the very same airport???

Please elaborate... if they can they will fly out of HND, no doubt. But NH don't decide about the HND slots, so they might get stuck with NRT for the BRU route.

[1V1]

Wow you guys are very serious about all this. Is there something to win?

[NCB]

Yeah, honour and self-sponsored candies.

[regi]

Jet Airways has tons of passangers connecting to Bangkok (same for Etihad). A lot of these pax will fly Emirates if they come to BRU.
For Hainan the impact will be a bit smaller but if the prices of Hainan are to heigh they will have a problem to.

This is absolutely not true. Jet Airways didn't come to BRU to serve the BKK market. Initially some passengers who go regularly towards BKK thought that it would be a good alternative. But it is a prime product to go to India, that is a fact.

Jet Airways is way too expensive to BKK.( but the quality is good ) Jet Airways has not such a good connection towards BKK as much as Etihad. ( But it is true that Etihad has become now a major player towards BKK.) If you look at data, be carefull: transfer time on the go and return flight. Some of the connections go through New Delhi, others through Mumbai.
Secondly: how many flights a week? ( the days that Etihad would not fly to Brussels, they fly to Geneva and from there onwards it is a flight with Swissair or SNBA -as happened to me )
Thirdly: quality of transfer: if you would have been once at New Delhi or Mumbai, and compare it with the new terminal at Abu Dhabi, there is no more choice left over. I have been at both Indian airports several times and it are places where you don't want to spend many hours. Restaurants, shops, toilets ?
Abu Dhabi was no pleasure before the new terminal was opened. But now it is modern, compact , clean, smoke free ( the old UFO building has been discribed as a place where you can catch instant lung cancer )

[RoMax]

I never said Jet has started BRU operations to serve BKK, but there are really a lot of pax that fly with Jet to Bangkok. That's why SN started codeshare on both Etihad and Jet flights to Bangkok. But I agree that Etihad is a way better choice for flying to BKK.

[regi]

I know that NH will come to BRU, no matter what EK does.
BRU-DXB-NRT is not economical, it's 40% longer than BRU-NRT, which means that the best EK can do is to match NH's fares.

BRU was not able to attract sufficient interest from Asian carriers for the past 9 years. EK coming to BRU should be a blessing for the consumer who doesn't want to pay AF/KLM, BA, LH fares to the Middle East, Asia and Oceania.

There is an alternative to Asia now, Aeroflot. They have changed their schedules and now also have a daytime flight out of BRU on some days (starting January? February?), which connects smoothly to several Asian destinations in SVO.

Well dear NCB, it is clear you are not aware about the reality. A ticket to BKK costs me 514 euro all included during high season with Qantas from Brussels. This is cheaper than with Emirates from Dusseldorf ( only Mahan Air is cheaper: 500 euro ), and it saves me 2 x 300 km driving towards DUS.

I know about the Aeroflot flights. First of all: did you check the transfer time at SVO which was as far as I knew 15 hours on the return leg? Secondly: The price is 200 euro higher during high season. Thirdly: I do prefer the Qantas B747 with all the goodies instead of a Il-96.

I checked prices the last years with Emirates ( from DUS ) for trips to BKK, Shanghai, Cape Town, J'Burg, Mumbai. Each time Emirates got beaten on price and connection time. So I flew Swiss, BA, Etihad, Qantas and Gulf Air. ( not in that order )

I have to correct myself. I should not have asked the question what the impact would be if Emirates would come to BRU. As long as it is not the case and we don't know the prices and connection times and frequency, it is just guessing.

[NCB]

Qantas flies to BRU?
SU operates most routes with brand new Airbus equipment, the IL-96 are spares mainly.
SU's return legs from Asia connect smoothly to Europe in the actual schedule.
True, the major carriers have promotions sometimes. EK is not always cheaper, that's a fact.

[Vinnie-Winnie]

Unfortunately CASM is part of the equation, not the equation itself. Since it only reflects how much it costs to carry a seat for one mile, it doesn't tell you how many big fat *sses you're going to put on a flight with X ASM, which is dictated by the rules of supply and demand. An average load factor of 75% on a B763ER/B788 is equal to an average load factor of 50% on a B772ER.
Generally, the 75-85% LF arena is where your yields are best for a given route/aircraft capacity combination, and to achieve those numbers on a B772ER between NRT and BRU you'd have to go very low on the fares. Whenever you are off those numbers it means that you either aren't charging enough or you are charging too much.
The B788 will offer the best balance between charging 30 000$ per pax to fly scheduled BRU-NRT service on a Falcon 7X or charging 50$ to get 75-85% LF on an all-economy A380 between the two cities.

In one sentence: BRU-NRT can not sustain B772ER service.

Secondly, but not significant in any regards, the expected CASM of the B788 is lower than that of the B772ER anyway.

U'r missing the point of what I'm saying: What I'm saying is that small aircraft high casm with not enough yields to sustain a flight is suicide. And that is exactly what I think has prevented JAL or NH to fly to Brussels.

BRU's problem is that it is very hard to fill the front and the back of the plane at the same. And you need to be able to do both to make a flight profitable. Now since japanese airlines seem to prefer frequency, I doubt BRU is an easy market to break into

What if NH flew to FRA because it can sustain a flight on its own and get all the profit?

For what else? ?

Was only trying to respond to what you said here:

" if NH have such a superb coverage thanks to LH, why do they even bother operating NRT-FRA with B772ER/B77W when LH has a daily B744 out of FRA and a daily A346 out of MUC?"?

What I'm trying to tell you here is that NH will only fly to a destination with its own metal if it is PROFITABLE. Otherwise it will rely on Star alliance feed to bring customers to its own flights/blocks of seats it has bought on its partners flights

Double hint: I need to fly NRT-MXP... one stop with NH/LH + many others OR non-stop with JL/AZ?

Who are you? A business pax? A leisure traveller or a Star frequent flier member?

Star frequent flyer... airlines typically tend to overrate their mileage and alliance programs. Poor stupid passengers who don't realise that they're being screwed and paying more than they would save. Poor stupid airlines who invest useless money into mileage programs while the select ones who use them really have no other choice or choose them because they are the cheapest anyway. Business pax want non-stop flying and frequencies, leisure travellers care less but will certainly not choose the expensive LH/NH combination. NH even shuttles their Benelux pax all the way down to CDG while they could all take a LH feeder to FRA out of BRU or AMS...

See that is your problem NCB. You think a little too much about your personal circumstances and not enough about the market. What I was trying to say here is that when you analyse consumer behaviour you need to segment it into different categories. High level u got business pax & leisure pax and when you go down you could have all kind of segmentations such as for example leisure pax household income 100k+ frequent flier star alliance member travels regularly for business.

Mileage programs are quite important especially if the passenger travels for business as he can usually accrue his miles for personal travel. As such he may well do a little detour to go to his destinations because 1) it will be cheaper for his company 2) he can accrue miles for his own use.

It's all about willingness to pay not about being screwed over

[Please elaborate... if they can they will fly out of HND, no doubt. But NH don't decide about the HND slots, so they might get stuck with NRT for the BRU route.

Thought I made myself clear; What I'm saying is that NH would certainly not risk the bank for a new destination such as BRU.

[1V1]

Qantas flies to BRU?
SU operates most routes with brand new Airbus equipment, the IL-96 are spares mainly.
SU's return legs from Asia connect smoothly to Europe in the actual schedule.
True, the major carriers have promotions sometimes. EK is not always cheaper, that's a fact.

EK is not interested in being the cheapest. If you sell cheap tickets you need a more than full aircraft to make profit.

[regi]

Qantas flies to BRU?
SU operates most routes with brand new Airbus equipment, the IL-96 are spares mainly.
SU's return legs from Asia connect smoothly to Europe in the actual schedule.
True, the major carriers have promotions sometimes. EK is not always cheaper, that's a fact.

If I am proposed a ticket BRU to BKK with Qantas I do know that the flight is going through LHR with BA or BMI ( now changing probably in SNBA ) and from there onwards with Qantas.
Strange that you don't seem to know this. Or you are just trying to be funny?

Aeroflot: didn't I propose to check the facts? Well, guess what. You are just hiding the facts and talk about the return leg. 4h20 transfer time at SVO is NOT a smooth connection. And you did hide that on the go flight there is a transfer time of 14h25 .
An Airbus from SVO to BKK? Since when? Only an Il-96 to BKK, not as back up but as the regular machine. Oh yes, I know, the Aeroflot website mentions A330. But what you get is Russian.
The first page of Skytrax about Aeroflot shows already 2 recent 2009 reports of BKK flights...with Il-96.
http://www.airlinequality.com/Forum/aeroflot.htm
And on airliners you don't see Aeroflot Airbusses at BKK as well. How would that come?

And price? Emirates has never been the cheapest. Neither was Aeroflot. ( as I said: I did check the facts and the same ticket I have with Qantas would cost me 200 euro extra with Aeroflot and half a day longer transit time at the bunker called SVO)
You suddenly come up with the word "promotion". I never ask for promotions. I ask for the price. Oh, by he way, NCB, you who seems to be so well informed about every subject. You were aware that Egypt Air has the lowest standard fares out of BRU to some Asian destinations, weren't you?

[regi]

Referring to my previous post I did mention Egypt Air.
We did forget that airline - with modern equipment, more space and shorter transit times - as a main competitor of the Emirates business, besides of Jet Airways and Etihad.
No, I do not think we will see Emirates coming to BRU in the near future .
Stiff competition.

[Conti764]

U'r missing the point of what I'm saying: What I'm saying is that small aircraft high casm with not enough yields to sustain a flight is suicide. And that is exactly what I think has prevented JAL or NH to fly to Brussels.

Isn't that one of the advantages of the B787? Flying to destinations which where impossible before? Offering the range of a T7, smaller capacity (between T7 and 76x) and lower operating costs?

[NCB]

Aeroflot: didn't I propose to check the facts? Well, guess what. You are just hiding the facts and talk about the return leg. 4h20 transfer time at SVO is NOT a smooth connection. And you did hide that on the go flight there is a transfer time of 14h25 .

Jee Regi, you missed it when I said that SU has a new daytime flight out of BRU on some days, SU236.

SU236
BRU 1310 SVO 1830
SU553
SVO 1945 BKK 0840
Layover 1h15 min = smooth connection outbound

SU552
BKK 1000 SVO 1650
SU231
SVO 2110 BRU 2255
Layover 4h20 min = acceptable/comfortable with frequent delays out of BKKµ
BKK is well-known for their long holdings and taxi times, often resulting in hours long delays.

Egyptair is cheap too, but not often the cheapest. It depends on where you're headed in Asia.
MS actually only has a tiny longhaul fleet, you can't really call it a competitor to EK, at least not capacity and network wise.