African operations possible with narrow body equipment

[HighInTheSky]

I don't work for SN, so rest assured.

Thank god for that...

I wonder why I keep reading this thread, by now it is clear that NCB doesn't take NO for an answer, so why even bother posting reply after reply?

[LX-LGX]

Actually, for the Africa-specific aspects, the A319 is alot easier to operate.

Don't forget to double the fleet from 15 to 30, as you will need one a/c for the pax and one for the luggage.

You make it sound like A333 ops to Africa is a piece of cake compared to A319 but it's not that simple.

Well, at least a fully loaded A333 is able to take off on a hot African day, when fully loaded.

I don't work for SN, so rest assured.

I wasn't worried about that, as it's quite obvious that you are not working in the aviation industry.

[134flyer]

Still not replying to valid arguments, still only replying to what He thinks is "worth replying for"

Still posting utter crap, despite what all others say:

Actually, for the Africa-specific aspects, the A319 is alot easier to operate.

NCB, maybe you should consider flying Cessna152LR's to Africa, just enough space for you and your ego, all pax have fled to the competition anyway after your plan has been introduced...

I don't work for SN, so rest assured.

How doesn't this surprise me?? And indeed, Thank God!!

HighInTheSky, yes, I'm actually wondering myself why I keep replying... It's better to follow my own advice and ignore NCB's posts. He does have to realise that his credibility has now been reduced to ZERO, no matter in what tread or about what subject he will post...

[134flyer]

OK, then, "om het af te leren" just one tiny little detail:

Catering for 550 pax requires maybe 700 meals to be carried to allow for meal choice. This has to be carried from BRU, and dirty trays must be carried back to BRU.

So you worry about the 'catering problems' of the A330, an operation which SN is already doing for years without any problems, and for which the A330 has plenty of space. However, you regard the catering situation/stowage on the A319 as a small problem to overcome, if neccessary by building an African catering facility and transporting the catering by small prop-planes??!!! I rest my case...

[MH53]

This forum is not only for aviation professionals working in yield management. As such, everyone shall be given the chance to understand and overcomplex calculations shall be simplified.

Who is mentioning that this forum is only for aviation professionals? Nobody ever mentioned that, so why bring it up? Calculations can be simplified but they have to make sense...

Still some of your mates like Winnie can't figure that hourly operating cost includes hourly maintenance cost and leasing expenses (that he describes as depreciation) and that overhead cost is not going to be affected by having a fleet of 15 x A319 compared to the actual mix of A319 and B73G's. Too bad you didn't recognise that and pointed it to him, so you are either an amateur looking for a momet of fame or frustration is eating on your objectivity.

An amateur mmm dream on... it is obviously who is the amateur here...better be carefull with your comments if you don't know what your talking about.

You are telling me who is teaching at universities? I know 14 people teaching in aerospace and aviation. I tell you, there are some real good guys, but there is alot of guys who don't have a clue what they're teaching about. Alot of guys who can show you 2 meter long formula's to explain some irrelevant stuff can't answer simple questions about something relevant.

Shall I tell you a secret? In every business you got people who know and who don't know what they are talking about. Do I need to say more...it is clear to everybody here which person knows what he is talking about and who does not know what he is talking about.

I know you are tempted to know what I do and where I work, but I am actually involved in several activities in different sectors from training to operations and maintenance.

I am suffering from insomnia by not knowing what you do for a living and where you work

I do not think that it's prudent to mention details here seen your behaviour towards me, no doubt that you would be tempted to attack my credentials and I'm not going to let that happen.
Who are you anyway to have so much interest in me? Do I know you and are you giving me a hard time for that? Otherwise it's sad that aviation is full of macho guys like you who can't stand that other people have idea's that you don't have. You are able to attack people, which anyone can do, but you have not shown your creative side.

You feel personally attacked while everybody is giving you hard facts where you do not respond to...
I am open to new creative ideas and it is good that you defend your ideas but you should accept it when an idea is not realistic anymore, move on! It is a learning process, on any level.

A little piece of advice: grow up, get mature or your posts will go unread...

Give me a break...

people don't enjoy your whining posts, people enjoy to read about new/other idea's as the number of reads on the 5th A330 thread show. You can help on that front if you have the background you claim to have and make this forum a better place.

Who do you respect? People with experience, with an aviation heart, with common sense or people who say yes to you? Try to learn from the feedback that is given to you and find out why they are saying that... You take it too personally while others try to explain why a plan might work or not.

Now have a look in the real world, check by yourself how much luggage Africans take with them and see by yourself the sizes of different kind of LCD's. Have you ever seen the belly cargo space of an A319 and an A330 (ever been inside and loaded one? I have! Yes, there are people who have studied and/or are managers who have practical experience on the 'workfloor'!). Check also the turnaround times by yourself.

[NCB]

DAKAR, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Senegal will launch a new, private sector-dominated national airline in early 2010 to replace Air Senegal International (ASI) which collapsed earlier this year, the government said on Friday.

ASI, a joint operation with Royal Air Maroc (RAM), stopped operating earlier this year due to a bitter row between the Senegalese authorities and RAM. The two parties said in May they would relaunch the carrier but that plan has been shelved.

"The new airline will officially be know as Senegal Airlines and will be based in Dakar," said a statement from the office of Karim Wade, minister in charge of International Cooperation, Urban Planning, Air Transportation and Infrastructure.

"Yes, we are helping establish the carrier, and as government, we will retain a small stake in Senegal Airlines. But this is a private sector company that will be driven by the market it will serve," Waded was quoted saying in the statement.

Until the row with RAM led to Moroccan planes being withdrawn, ASI had been one of the most reliable carriers in West Africa, a region where airlines are plagued with finance problems, irregular service and poor safety records.

The new airline is expected to fly to destinations in Africa and Europe.

More details on Senegal Airlines and its future fleet will be unveiled at the Dubai Air Show in mid November, the statement added. (Reporting by Diadie Ba; Writing by David Lewis; Editing by David Holmes)

http://af.reuters.com/article/senegalNe ... 3220091030

Interesting article isn't it?
Can't wait for the Dubai Airshow to see how many A320's/B737ER they will be ordering.

[LX-LGX]

Can't wait for the Dubai Airshow to see how many A320's/B737ER they will be ordering.

You are the AFI expert, so tell us what you think. How many new ones are you expecting them to buy (or lease) at Dubai?

Answering to streight questions is not your best capability, but try this one please: Will they order 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 or 20? And will it be A320 or A319?

And if they order 737ER, they're obviously going to use it for long haul. JFK, I assume?

- - -

By the way, Air Sénégal International had 3 x 737's in its fleet (initially 732, 735 and 737-700, as from July 2005 all 737-700 - thanks to RAM. End of 2008 they even had a 4th 737-700 in their fleet for just 3 months. And one DH8, replaced by a F50 in Dec 2005. Do you think that Air Sénégal will overclass Air Sénégal International?

[fretn]

Can't wait for the Dubai Airshow to see how many A320's/B737ER they will be ordering.

You are the AFI expert, so tell us what you think. How many new ones are you expecting them to buy (or lease) at Dubai?

Answering to streight questions is not your best capability, but try this one please: Will they order 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 or 20? And will it be A320 or A319?

And if they order 737ER, they're obviously going to use it for long haul. JFK, I assume?

- - -

By the way, Air Sénégal International had 3 x 737's in its fleet (initially 732, 735 and 737-700, as from July 2005 all 737-700 - thanks to RAM. End of 2008 they even had a 4th 737-700 in their fleet for just 3 months. And one DH8, replaced by a F50 in Dec 2005. Do you think that Air Sénégal will overclass Air Sénégal International?

Is that even possible, flying from Senegal to NY with a 737, without sever payload restrictions?

[RoMax]

I assume that "LX-LGX" said that with some type of sarcasm to NCB.

[AFApresident]

Interesting thread where in between the laughter want to make the following comments:

A32X type to west africa can work (which means sometimes it will and sometimes it won't). I live in Dakar and have flown about 4 times back and forth between Dakar and Brussels in the last 12 months (and to several other african airports such as Nouackchott, Bamako, Abidjan, Conakry etc). Sometimes on the nonstop Brussels Airlines A330 and sometimes with TAP's A321 / A319 via Lisbon (the latter is only a 4hour leg into africa). All of these flights were full, all of these flights had several rounds of catering (dinner + breakfast for DKR - LIS or DKR - BRU and 1 meal for BRU - DKR / LIS - DKR).

So catering wise it is certainly no problem. Luggage wise neither as TAP and Iberia have same limits as well and they carry a big load of cargo too. Operational wise in terms of infrastructure it works for sure too.

However the big difference is that Lisbon or Madrid are 2000km nearer to your african destination than Brussels. In other words for the A321-2 it would reach some destinations but it would be pushing it.

Conclusion I wouldn't laugh at the idea just straight away and could be an idea for BRU-Nouackchott - Bamako -BRU or BRU - Bamako - Niamey - BRU sector, but it would be tough and anything further would get next to impossible. Nonetheless instead of covering 2 weekly service in a A330 could directly opt for a 4-5 weekly service in the smaller A32X series which would be a good choice for passengers and free up some extra space for cargo, because indeed cargo is important.

Air France flies the A319 from PAR - NKC just 5 times a week but suplements a MD11 from Martinair Cargo to fill it up with high yielding cargo.


PS: airports in Africa are indeed a joke. Dakar is more or less like Ostend or BRUback in the 50s, but Conakry and Bamako are lets say "interesting to the western traveler". Nouackchott on the other hand is more like a bus station / hangar with not even check in computers. They use a piece of paperwhere they scrible on your name , the only high tech machine upon ariving in NKC was the "health check" machine which measured whether you had a fever or not. Don't ask me how since the temp inside must have been at least 37C too. A fan doesn't cool down a hangar when its 45C outside ).

Africa.. trust me I've worked for a over a year now in a major logistics company here and you cannot imagine how different it is, if you haven't lived here.

[ballisticz]

NCB,

Move on alone on this thread dude.
You keep denying hard facts and figures given to you by lots of people out here showing you that your idea is just a no-go. You don't reply when people give your hard facts and figures but rather throw your usual 'yes it works' under different ways.

Keep believing in it for yourself, keep filling up pages alone because most of us will do as you do.
Which is showing no respect by not responding anymore.

Anyhow, SN will probably expand its network and if so we'll know it shortly.
Be sure anyhow that it will be done through the leasing of an A333 if it happens.

Take good care of yourself.

Ballisticz

P.S : thanks God idd you do not work for SN ... what a relief.

[134flyer]

AFApresident, thanks for your interesting input! Glad to hear we made you laugh

But seriously. It was never a question if A32X are capable of operating these distances in a TECHNICAL way. As you show, it is doable distance wise to e.g. DKR (but it will be by a stretch), where there are 'reasonable' facilitities to fly to, and especially FROM. However, if SN is going to expand to Africa, it is to places like you mentioned:

Conakry and Bamako are lets say "interesting to the western traveler". Nouackchott on the other hand is more like a bus station / hangar with not even check in computers. They use a piece of paperwhere they scrible on your name , the only high tech machine upon ariving in NKC was the "health check" machine which measured whether you had a fever or not. Don't ask me how since the temp inside must have been at least 37C too. A fan doesn't cool down a hangar when its 45C outside ).

It is exactly when operating to these kind of places out of BRU (and not closer by) with A319's, that you will get to deal with a lot of operational constraints, and not only with the technical specifications of A319's, which NCB is failing to understand...

Africa.. trust me I've worked for a over a year now in a major logistics company here and you cannot imagine how different it is, if you haven't lived here.

This is also something very difficult to understand by NCB

[NCB]

AFA, good post. I disagree with you on the limited amount of destinations that can be served out of BRU.
The A319 has 1300km more range than A321 at typical loads, so I believe that it can serve those destinations, especially in a low capacity configuration.

Actually if you compare BRU-West Coast and MAD-West Coast, the difference is around 1300km.
The A321 will be more efficient but while it has 1.75 times more seats, the volume of cargo/luggage it can carry per seat will be the same.

The advantage I see for an A319 operation is that you don't need to triangulate your flight, you just serve hub to spoke from BRU. You don't have to serve daily if the routes don't justify it, but you lose that revenueless and disturbing inter-Africa sector.
It waists precious aircraft time and isn't fun for the crews and the passengers.


In relative terms, the A319, especially in the less dense configuration, will be less efficient to operate than A321, no doubt. But the A319 can create cost-savings through fleet commonality and can be rotated to operate intra-European flights in a longhaul configuration which will be added value for those passengers who want a real business class seat on their 1 to 3 hours trip.

Below is the Aeroflot A319 configuration, I would only switch the 20 38" pitch J seats into 12 A330-style 61" pitch seats sold as J for Africa and F for Europe. The economy class works fine the way it is here:



Eventually, for intra-European you can sell "empty middle seat" J class on top of the F class using the rows behind the F class. No need to say that F class would be very popular with business people and would yield very good as it will be the best premium product offered on intra-European routes. Not exactly the ideal low-yield tourist bus, but it can be used to serve places like LIN, GVA, MAN, etc...
Compared to 20 seats at 38", 12 seats at 61" yields 7" of additional space. That could be used to improve legroom in the 2 rows behind the F class and even be sold on the African routes as an economy plus product.

[cathay belgium]

NCB,

Do you really, but I mean really !,do not understand that:
A. Altough it (could ? ) can be possible to do some AFI traffic with an A319,
the limits are so SO special ( cargo,catering ( come'on special planes just for catering ),..)
that operating A319's into AFI isn't the best thing to do for SN ( from BRU )!
So PLEASE leave this discussion,end it,finish it because it's getting so boring !!!
You're (STILL) alone in this topic and not as a specialist (far from) the other people (STILL) have
better realistic analysis than you ! ( But I liked the discussion )
B. SN, get an A330 at higher rate ! as I earlier said, ... even with lower marges in this case,
AFI market can grow in the hands of SN, LH&pax&SN-people/pilots will be fine with it !
( bigger company,more jobs,more advertising,more routes with the same revenue in the end,
LH will be happy ! ( more for less ) ( Basic economics )
C. Air Senegal attacking SN ( get real (just once) )
What's next ? Air Togo ??
Besides .. even I never flown RAM what I heard the're not even close to compete SN.
D. just a tought

What if our Michael O'R... of FR was reading this topic and would believe our NCB ?
Or is Air Senegal just the next AFI-FR ?? flying from Dakar North ( because otherwise BRU was to far )

NCB, good luck trying defending your A319 plan,..
Luchtzakkers .. a bet, how many posts yet before NCB comes to reason ??
(reason= leaving his A319 plan )

Goodnight,CX-B

[MH53]

Dakar North ... of course why haven't we thinked about that earlier , fly to:

Algiers= Accra North
Tripoli= Lagos North
etc etc

NCB,

F intra EU? In this economic climate when you can hardly sell Business Class intra EU? ROTFL
Besides, Been there Done that: LH had F, C & Y intra Europe years ago, now why do you think they got rid of F intra Europe

Thanks Cathay Belgium

ps. my bet is:9592373932

[134flyer]

I should actually refrain from posting, but:

Below is the Aeroflot A319 configuration, I would only switch the 20 38" pitch J seats into 12 A330-style 61" pitch seats sold as J for Africa and F for Europe. The economy class works fine the way it is here:

Eventually, for intra-European you can sell "empty middle seat" J class on top of the F class using the rows behind the F class. No need to say that F class would be very popular with business people and would yield very good as it will be the best premium product offered on intra-European routes.

F intra-european? Are you kidding us, or are you really that...??? Business people do not automatically fly Business Class!!! Many companies nowadays force their employees to fly Y intra europe, they even force them to fly Y longhaul. LH e.g is throwing out rows of C on longhaul aircraft to replace them with Y seats, and you want to fly F intra Europe???

And before you respond (I know you won't, but anyway): this is only ONE piece of a 567833 pieces puzzle full of reasons why your plan WON'T WORK!!!

[LX-LGX]

F intra-european? Are you kidding us, or are you really that...??? Business people do not automatically fly Business Class!!! Many companies nowadays force their employees to fly Y intra europe, they even force them to fly Y longhaul. LH e.g is throwing out rows of C on longhaul aircraft to replace them with Y seats, and you want to fly F intra Europe???

Not only LH is phasing out most of its C-rows. Check this out : a press release from Air France, from yesterday:

http://corporate.airfrance.com/en/press ... emps-2010/

[Atlantis]

By the way, Air Sénégal International had 3 x 737's in its fleet (initially 732, 735 and 737-700, as from July 2005 all 737-700 - thanks to RAM. End of 2008 they even had a 4th 737-700 in their fleet for just 3 months. And one DH8, replaced by a F50 in Dec 2005. Do you think that Air Sénégal will overclass Air Sénégal International?

Was there not a problem some time ago between RAM and Air Sénégal International. Took RAM not all its a/c back from ASI? I thought that they had one a/c left.

[NCB]

CX, I'll start with your comment about Air Senegal.
The new start-up is not Air Senegal but Senegal Airlines. Different owners with totally different plans and full government support. No RAM involvement at all, maybe some oil tycoon looking at investing his value-losing dollars into something profitable.

If they start flying DKR-BRU in direct competition with SN with something like A319/A320/B737 and with frequency, SN will have to lower yields and lose revenue. Just imagine 80 less sold seats on each of SN's BRU-DKR sectors and you get the idea. African businessmen will be tempted to go for their country's airline if they offer new aircraft.
Now imagine that the airline offers possibilities to fly to FIH via DKR for say a hundred euro less one-way.
Same problem for SN, they will lose 50 seats per sector to FIH.
I speculate that Senegal Airlines will order around 20 A320 or B737 aircraft at the Dubai Airshow.
Worse, who knows maybe there could be an Afriqiyah order too. Sunday and especially Monday will be interesting to follow, I'll keep you posted.

Do the same with most SN's routes in Africa and you realise that SN's position in Africa is not that strong after all. A few seats here to Senegal Airlines, a few seats there to Afriqiyah and SN's A330's will be flying empty before soon.

Then, what's the problem about getting a more expensive A333?
SN is already operating the routes that have the most potential. All other routes are either too thin or packed with competition or the new A330 adds capacity to existing routes. Wherever you send the new old A330, its yields are going to be lower than on the existing ones. Add the higher lease cost and you'd be better off operating to Kangerlussuaq.

Now put yourself in LH's position in 2011.
SN lost money for 3 straight years (2008, 2009, probably 2010), alot of rising competition in Africa, some A330's flying some triangles but no long-term plan, I can operate Africa all by myself now, I no longer need SN's help. Nah, I'm going to dump my 65 million stake, but I learned how to operate to indigenous places like FIH.
I'm not going to bid, I'm just going to wait for SN to dry out of money and pick up the routes to Africa one by one together with its customers. My shareholders are going to be very pleased and I'm going to explain to the other SN investors and SN staff that the rising competition in Africa forces to cut all the African routes out of BRU and to fly them all out of FRA. They're going to reroute the A333's to Asia or U.S. and then say that they tried hard but that there is no longer a market for longhaul out of BRU. Shareholders will be so desperate that they will force LH to buy the rest of a dying SN. The birth of Brussels Citylines.

Can't happen? What is it that happened to BMI since LH bought that 20% stake back in 1999 from SK who was in dear need of cash? It went from an airline with an expnasion plan to a regional airline only useful for its slots at LHR and feeding to FRA.

F in Europe is an excellent idea especially in a recovering climate with potentially hiking oil prices.
In anyway, in the proposed plan, the A319's would only be configured into an African configuration in the winter of 2010-2011. The economy will be in full recovery at that time, especially in the spring of 2011.
Even now, the few businesses that can still afford to pay for J seats will prefer to use SN's first class than other airlines J service. If the price is right, say only 5-30% higher than J, it will work. The upgrade would be a nice plus for the business accounts who will consider twice before sending their employees into Y, a tendency that SN can not stop any better than LH or AF.

Be under no illusion, it would not be a good idea to send such A319's to for instance Palermo, as they will only be able to sell the F seats at low yields. But there's enough places to keep them busy.

The reason why LH and AF are reducing J seats and increasing Y seats ON THEIR AIRCRAFT WITH TOO LARGE J CLASSES is because alot of their customers are business customers. Now the businesses are cutting travel budgets so there is alot more demand for Y seats than there is for J seats. They can't fly with full Y class and empty J class.

For our not so aviated friends, F is first, J and C is business, Y is economy.

[134flyer]

Don't know why myself, but I keep responding....

Now put yourself in LH's position in 2011.
SN lost money for 3 straight years (2008, 2009, probably 2010), alot of rising competition in Africa, some A330's flying some triangles but no long-term plan, I can operate Africa all by myself now, I no longer need SN's help. Nah, I'm going to dump my 65 million stake, but I learned how to operate to indigenous places like FIH.
I'm not going to bid, I'm just going to wait for SN to dry out of money and pick up the routes to Africa one by one together with its customers. My shareholders are going to be very pleased and I'm going to explain to the other SN investors and SN staff that the rising competition in Africa forces to cut all the African routes out of BRU and to fly them all out of FRA. They're going to reroute the A333's to Asia or U.S. and then say that they tried hard but that there is no longer a market for longhaul out of BRU. Shareholders will be so desperate that they will force LH to buy the rest of a dying SN. The birth of Brussels Citylines.

Can't happen? What is it that happened to BMI since LH bought that 20% stake back in 1999 from SK who was in dear need of cash? It went from an airline with an expnasion plan to a regional airline only useful for its slots at LHR and feeding to FRA.

You have really no idea what you are talking about, do you??

I would rather have a look of what happened to LX; instead of becoming a feeder to LH, they got even bigger, also long-haul and bring a nice profit for the LH group.

The deal to buy BD was a totally different agreement made 10 years ago under totally different terms, under which Sir Michael Bishop (the then majority owner and Chairman of BD) could force LH to buy his shares. The BD plans of expansion first to the US from MAN, then withdrawing from the US, start Middle East etc and other changes, were made by the BD management themselves. BD only have to blame themselves for (at least a big part of) the state they are in right now and THIS was part of the reason for the confrontation between Sir Michael Bishop and LH; the reduced value of the airline!! Some people even go as far as saying that BD did some 'creative accounting' to hide the skeletons in the closet...

More info here:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 911708.ece

F in Europe is an excellent idea especially in a recovering climate with potentially hiking oil prices.
In anyway, in the proposed plan, the A319's would only be configured into an African configuration in the winter of 2010-2011. The economy will be in full recovery at that time, especially in the spring of 2011.
Even now, the few businesses that can still afford to pay for J seats will prefer to use SN's first class than other airlines J service. If the price is right, say only 5-30% higher than J, it will work. The upgrade would be a nice plus for the business accounts who will consider twice before sending their employees into Y, a tendency that SN can not stop any better than LH or AF.

Even if the roads would be paved with gold, there will NEVER EVER be a demand for F intra-europe!! Even if the economy will recover in full (and taking 'business accounts' into account), companies will never pay for their employees to fly F on short intra-european routes, even not to GVA, LIN etc... WAKE UP!!

The reason why LH and AF are reducing J seats and increasing Y seats ON THEIR AIRCRAFT WITH TOO LARGE J CLASSES is because alot of their customers are business customers. Now the businesses are cutting travel budgets so there is alot more demand for Y seats than there is for J seats. They can't fly with full Y class and empty J class.

Exactly what I was saying. Demand for F & C has plummeted, and it is extremely questionable that it will ever go back to the level we had, and you still think there will be demand for F intra-europe????

For our not so aviated friends, F is first, J and C is business, Y is economy.

Rest assured, everybody here will know what F, C/J & Y means