Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

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Desert Rat
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Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by Desert Rat »

Is there a chance that they reopen the route???

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euroflyer
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg???

Post by euroflyer »

I do not know, but given the fact that there are a number of STAR & LH flights from central Europe to Johannesburg I think other destinations, which are not served today by either STAR or at least the LH Group might be more likely?
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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by Atlantis »

I think there are other opportunities then Johannesburg at this moment.

It's very clear that SN is working hard on their European routes.

HighInTheSky
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by HighInTheSky »

Desert Rat wrote:Is there a chance that they reopen the route???
I won't count on JNB for now... Accra, Cotonou, Lome, Ougadougou will be more likely in my opinion.
I also think that our A333's don't get there :?:

Don't get me wrong, I would love to fly to JNB ;)

Kapitein
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by Kapitein »

Maybe we will see in the future SA flying JNB/CPT - FRA - BRU 2 or 3 time a week. Looks for the most logical with the opcoming Star Alliance membership.
I'm not seeing SN flying with there own metal to South Africa.
It's just a tought.

BATAVIA
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by BATAVIA »

Hey guys,

Please please, let us all be realistic.

Of course there is no chance at all that Brussels AL would re-open destinations like JNB, BKK, SIN or other exotic places,eventough SA, TG and SQ are Star members.
Even a 2 or 3 weekly service via FRA is out of the question by SA.

Destinations like OUA,COO or LFW and others might have a chance later this decennia, but even those are unlikely.

Brussels A/L's only aim for the moment is to survive, and that will be only possible by making sure the European network gets higher loadfactors.(better yield).Let's hope.

regards,

regi
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by regi »

Small thougt: with the soccer championship coming up (between 11 June and 11 July 2010) , there is a lot of travel to SA, consultants, engineers, inspectors, just name it.
The games themselves are not lasting long enough to open regular flights. That's true.
But the aftermath impact, when SA will have come in the picture as a tourist destination with modern facilities, could create enough hunger for new routes.

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BrightCedars
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by BrightCedars »

I think the only chance we have to see SN at JNB is for them to order a viable jet that could make the route profitable with the customer profile on the route. Something like a 2-class B787 should be able to offer that, an A350 might be too large already, maybe it is within the reach of the existing A330-200.

I agree with most that SN will be looking and acting on many other things before admiring the possibility of service to JNB. I kind of hope service to BEY would come before that!

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by tolipanebas »

Let's think about it for a minute and judge the business case in all honesty, shall we?

Since there's definitely not enough local demand for regular flights from Belgium to South Africa, SN would have to attract connecting pax to fill the plane (just like it is doing on all of its other African destinations). However, contrary to its other destinations in Africa, JNB is a destination which is widely served from Europe by most other network carriers already, so competition on the route is going to be much stronger than on any other African route SN operates (to the exception of NBO maybe), meaning the yields are going to be very very low.

Besides, a route to JNB would need to see daily flights to be anyhow attactive to the spoiled connecting pax who have the choice between at least 10 airlines to go to JNB, otherwise all SN will be able to get are the absolute lowest yielding VFR (tourist) pax!

Add to that that you'd actually need more than one plane to serve BRU-JNB on a daily basis due the the long flight time (something which is increased even if you'd combine JNB with another destination in AFI: then you'd need more than 2 planes even and probably kill the attractiveness to connecting pax since it would mean 2 intermediate stops for them!) and it quicky shows that any route to SA is going to be quite expensive to operate and most likely very low yielding. Not the best position to be in to make the route profitable. Maybe in ideal economic times, you'd still be able to reach brake-even, but routes of this type are the first to be axed when things go bad, and they sure do these days!

Better deploy any extra planes on shorter and higher yielding routes: iso having 2 A330s shuttle up and down between BRU and JNB with only low yielding pax, it's far better to have these same 2 planes operate on 3 or 4 far more yielding new central and west-african destinations: less competition (=higher fares), shorter flighttimes (=lower cost), more than just 1 new destination for SN (=attractive network carrier), more totally new destinations to the alliance they're soon part of (=more high yielding connecting pax)...

JNB??? NO WAY!!! :lol:

BTW- Sabena operated to JNB on a daily basis,and the loads were really really high (I know because I wanted to go there on non-revenu tickets yet didn't do so, because when I cheched the route it was never below 95% booked), yet the were reportedly loosing close to 1BN BEF (i.e. 25M euro) on the route per fiscal year.

hakan
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by hakan »

Why not trying THY? I have checked this in their web site for February journey:

TK1940 Bru-Ist 17.40-22.00
TK80 Ist-Johannesburg 23.55-09.30+1 (connection times are short and reasonable)

return

TK81 J.Burg-Ist 20.25-06.00+1
TK1937 Ist-Bru 07.55-10.30

return ticket THY web price: 978 Euro (all taxes included)

What do you reckon? :?:

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BrightCedars
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by BrightCedars »

First, I would like to note that the thread title is not correct, as Brussels Airlines can't reopen something they never opened and closed in the first place. Just a bit of nitpicking.
tolipanebas wrote:Let's think about it for a minute and judge the business case in all honesty, shall we?
If we go on a theoretical business case, I'd beg to differ with you on these points.

There is demand between Belgium and South Africa both ways. It may not be high yielding or of a volume important enough to support a daily operation, but there is underlying demand in the market.

I do believe that you do not need to sacrifice 2 long-haul aircraft for JNB runs. Airlines no longer let the metal spend the day in JNB to provide overnight flights in both directions so immobilization is less than it used to be, and even if a return to JNB would require more than 24 hours, SN has plenty enough destinations in its network where it could use an A330-200 for a return in about 20 hours or so.

To cater to the local market while using the catchment and hub effect to fill empty seats, SN wouldn't need to offer a daily frequency, 3 weekly would certainly do for a good beginning and compensate the lack of frequency with the comfort of a nonstop operation. Business passengers would still benefit from the daily frequency e.g. by connecting in FRA, MUC or ZRH on the days SN doesn't run it's nonstop. SN could also link up with LH group member BD who might have an interest in serving the destination but wouldn't have the slots at LHR to do so. BD could also associate with SA and VS but that hasn't been seen so far. SN could also rely on Star Alliance member SA to codeshare on the service.

Under these conditions a 3 weekly JNB run should be able to turn a profit, and next year's World Cup could be the occasion to launch. An A330-200 can easily do the job, why not in combination with Montreal 4 times a week. If it doesn't work and tests to be unsustainable SN could pull the plug some time after the World Cup.

There is another factor in this, although not very rational, in the fact that you can't pretend to be the airline to choose to Africa and not offer JNB on your network map. I suspected SN to promote JNB via FIH thru the air DC venture, but that seems to be a fading hope.

Still I repeat that I do not think this would be SN's top priority. But I like to balance tolipanebas' own analysis.

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beaucaire
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by beaucaire »

I've done three time Brussels -Johannesburg in a different life on SN (Business) and each time the flights were well booked-even in C-Class .To me Johannesburg would be a kind of mandatory destination for the "Africa-Experts" within STAR alliance.I even would continue the flight into Durban,which is due to open a new airport with a longer runway.I know that economy is currently not great,but for SN South Africa would be just be a logic choice.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by tolipanebas »

BrightCedars wrote:I like to balance tolipanebas' own analysis.
It's not like SN hasn't thought of operating to JNB before, so it's really not just my view, you know?
:roll:

For network purposes, fleet planning needsn maintenance reasons and crew scheduling limitations, the bottom line to any long haul route analysis must always be that any destination that far from BRU that the plane used on it can't make it back to BRU in about 20 hrs is basically out of the question, because it would occupy the plane for far too long and there are far more lucrative shorter routes to operate it on: don't even think about it, especially not on an already pretty low yielding route like JNB and certainly not if not operated daily!

Check the fares from Europe JNB and compare them to the fares BRU-BJM, BRU-KGL, BRU-ROB, etc...
Why would SN bother overflying a bunch of very luctrative central-African destinations just over halfway to JNB with 1 (and ideally even 2) potentially full but very low yielding A330s, when they could ask twice as much to other pax who want to go only half as far (and thus also cost them less)????

Also, that HUGE market from Belgium to SA you're talking about: How big is it in numbers?
At Sabena they knew it pretty well: 40% of the capacity of the daily flight, the rest had to be filled with connections!

I am really stunned by how people constantly overrate JNB:
Sabena served it for years on a daily basis as a real network carrier and made huge losses (with the plane constantly overbooked).
Sobelair tried it with just a couple of flights a week as a point-to-point carrier and also made huge losses (with the plane half empty).
Can't see how a model which would be a mixtute of both could do better than a pure version of either one of the 2 methods.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by tolipanebas »

Ah, change JNB to Durban and you'd get another business case indeed, because SN would definitely see less competition on such a route, meaning they could get away with offering less than a daily frequency (4 weekly for instance) and ask higher prices than others to South Africa ("hey, it's direct to where you want to be")....

However, that still doesn't mean it should be a priority, since the route would still cost a lot to operate and there is far more money to be made elsewhere (at lesser costs).

I think the error you're making is to SN as the generic Africa-specialist, whereas I see them more as the specialist of the difficult places to fly too in Africa... Any destination too obvious and it is invaded by all the other EU airlines too and they will always win the upper hand thanks to the much bigger volume they can rely on.

With a lot of help from LH (and the wider STAR community) SN could certainly try to hold grounds in the face of competition, but is this really what they should waste their unique know-how on??? Better let LX and LH do this easy job and move into more adventurous and often also more lucrative terrain.

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beaucaire
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by beaucaire »

Your comments are well reasoned and obviously flights into Central Africa yield better than South Africa,despite the shorter flight-time.
But don't forget for the price-sensitive clients SN will get a Lybian competitor called
http://www.afriqiyah.be/destinations.html

who seems to target SN network via Tripolis.( at lower fares but with a tedious stop-over in one of the world's worst airports-true..)
Example Douala is 740 € versus 901€ return all included.
Also I assume Afriqiyah will be a "dry" airline,which would prevent me from using it for long flights..(let's face it - a meal and drinking just water or Coke is just not it..!!)

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BrightCedars
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by BrightCedars »

tolipanebas wrote:It's not like SN hasn't thought of operating to JNB before, so it's really not just my view, you know?
So should I say that I'm balancing the point of view expressed by you? Fair enough but worse than nitpicking.
tolipanebas wrote:Also, that HUGE market from Belgium to SA you're talking about: How big is it in numbers?
Where do you read me talking about huge numbers?

Are you taking things personally? Because believe me you shouldn't. And the purpose of the forum is to exchange ideas and share different point of views. If one wishes to remain factual, then this entire thread has nothing to do in 'Latest aviation news'.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by tolipanebas »

BrightCedars wrote:So should I say that I'm balancing the point of view expressed by you? Fair enough but worse than nitpicking.
Now don't go down this path, please. This site has always been known for its polite discussions, so no need to change that policy. All I am saying is that despite the fact that SN could theoretically make some money on JNB under ideal circumstances indeed, it has many good reasons (not MY reasons, but ITS reasons, some of which I have mentioned as I happen to know them) to prefer focussing on other destinations. You can disagree with them, but some things just are what they are...

Besides, as to me allegedly nitpicking: haven't you done so (too) by commenting on the title of this topic?
BrightCedars wrote:Are you taking things personally? Because believe me you shouldn't. And the purpose of the forum is to exchange ideas and share different point of views.


Some ideas pop up every 2 to 3 months (like non-stop flights between BRU and JNB), and always the same arguments in favour are brought forward, arguments which have been proved wrong several times by several well-informed parties (and I do not even dare to include myself here), yet for one reason the issue under discussion here is imune for this.
BrightCedars wrote:this entire thread has nothing to do in 'Latest aviation news'
I fully agree, but I haven't put it here in the first place...

Anyway, I'd like to stress once more I am not taking this issue personally against you or your opinions, which I often share BTW, just not on the JNB case, so just to make this absolutely clear.
Last edited by tolipanebas on 29 Jan 2009, 15:46, edited 1 time in total.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by tolipanebas »

beaucaire wrote:Don't forget for the price-sensitive clients SN will get a Lybian competitor called
who seems to target SN network via Tripolis
That's just another competitor, the kind of RAM, Air Algerie, Air Senegal etc...
For some reasons , many pax don't really like to connect to their African destination at an African Airport...
As such they are mainly VFR competitors, definitely to be watched, but not as big a competitor as a European airline.

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itami
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by itami »

tolipanebas wrote:Sabena served it for years on a daily basis as a real network carrier and made huge losses (with the plane constantly overbooked).
Then it means their ticket price was simply too low.

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels Airlines to Johannesburg??? Any chance to reopen?

Post by tolipanebas »

itami wrote:
tolipanebas wrote:Sabena served it for years on a daily basis as a real network carrier and made huge losses (with the plane constantly overbooked).
Then it means their ticket price was simply too low.
Why do you think the ticket prices had to be so low in the first place?

There's so much competition on the route from Europe to JNB, Sabena couldn't increase fares without imediately loosing a lot of their connecting pax who'll often simply book the cheapest flight they can find. Any gain from increasing ticket fares would have been lost through a drop in overall loadfactor and thus revenue.

Really a catch-22-situation, which is why the route was scapped completely: Sabena lost around 100 euro per connecting pax on the route and couldn't ask 100 euro more either or it would have just lost many of them completely (and thus also the few hundred euro it got in revenue from them).
Persuade 5 connecting pax to pay 100 extra and loose 1 and the bottom line is you're still no better off.

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