The future of Brussels Airlines with Lufthansa

[Conti764]

@Conti764;

JFK is listed 14th on the most important airports of the world ( in pax amounts; 47.716941pax ) compared to EWR on the 21th place( 36.367240 pax ) ( source: magazine aero international 10/2008 ). So JFK is still more important than EWR, and I think for every non US airline.
Swiss, LH and Austrian all have ( several ) daily direct flights to JFK.
There is a partner airline for SN in JFK: Jet Blue; in wich LH even has some stakes.

Well, first of all, I wonder why every airline in the world is craving for JFK... It's probably because before CO turned EWR into their hub, it wasn't much of an important airport but things have changed over the years.
EWR for one, is far less congested then JFK in terms of taxi times. EWR is the more convenient airport to travel to Manhattan (still the most important market in NYC) and is a very good gateway to the rest of the US through Continental.

It doesn't matter if there are more pax traveling to JFK, since it are mostly international airlines which fly to the airport and in higher numbers then to EWR. These pax have nothing to do with SN, and they are of no value to SN at all. You say it yourself, Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian are flying direct to JFK, so why would they botter flying through Brussels. Where would SN get the pax? France (Air France)? The Netherlands (KLM)? The UK? Roughly every important airline or national flag carrier flies to JFK, so noone will even bother flying with SN.
The O&D market BRU-JFK is not sufficient enough for SN to operate on their own. You see proof in the fact that American downgraded the route, even with a partnership with SN. So if they had hard times filling a 763 with two, how the heck would SN fill (at least) an A332 on its own? And no way in hell CO is going to codeshare with SN on this flight. It would mean cutting in their own market from EWR. And why would LH, LX, Austrian and the likes codeshare with SN if they serve JFK from their own markets?

JetBlue is a low cost company and still not in Star Alliance. Continental can offer everything JetBlue can offer, in a full service airline. LH owning a minority stake of 19% doesn’t change anything.

So, JFK is of little to no importance for SN. SN simply is to small to have sufficient loads on this market. The only thing they can gain from such route is prestige and ‘prestige only’ is not a good reason to fly a route in aviation. We only have to go back 10 years to see what happens to an airline which can’t let go of its ‘prestige routes’.

And I say again, LH, CO, UA and AC have gained ATI for transatlantic service, so let them use this ATI to full extend and let those North-American routes up to Star Alliance partners. Forget JFK, forget Canada, forget whatever airport you would like to see operated by SN, and focus on Africa. That’s where the money is, that’s a market of value to SN.

[Air Key West]

If SN wanted to please all of us dreamers here (and that sometimes includes myself), they would have to triple their long haul fleet overnight. YUL, BOS, NYC : at least three more aircraft. Meaningful expansion in Africa : at least three to four more aircraft. That would mean eight additional planes leading to a total of 12 aircraft. Even with the help of LH, there is no way SN can do this in a short time span (for obvious reasons which, I assume, I don't have to explain here).
I think we should trust LH to do what is best (and I hope we are not misplacing our trust like it was done with SR). Current LH managers are competent people if you look at LH's results (even if they are not as good as they used to be on account of the global crisis).
Things are moving, slowly however. Airbuske announced us the SN/JK codeshares which is good news. The only bad news here is that b.air will be moving from a new and modern terminal to an old one at MAD. But you cannot have it all, can you ?
And please, let us continue to dream about the future of SN with LH, even if we are not always realistic. Most of time this forum is a lot of fun.

[kiwiandrew]

@ MR_Boeing:



@ Boeing747-nurse:

You have some valid arguments. But then again, LH is Star Alliance and I'm pretty sure LH will see things in a Star Alliance point of view, even more since they applied for (and got) US DoT Anti Thrust Immunity for transatlantic service together with UA, CO and AC. So it's easier for LH (and Star Alliance) to let UA, CO and AC fly transatlantic routes then to go through the hassle of SN requesting the rights to fly certain routes from BRU to North-America. Only when there are destinations in North-America which none of the *A carriers fly to and have a descent demand to BRU, a flight on SN-metal is a possibility.

I agree with most of what you have posted , but please note that since the EU-US open skies agreement is in place there would be absolutely no need for SN to request any rights to the US ( but I still agree with those posters who say that it would be commercial suicide for them to open a route to NYC )

[RoMax]

If they gonne fly to the US in the near future (I am sorry I can't speak about a long term vision enymore ) and I don't think this will happen, than they need to expand their EU network to.
I was just thinking about some new maybe possible routes in Europe. I like to hear your opinion but don't beat me if I say something stupid.
-Bari: myair was flying 3 times a week with CRJ-900 (close to amount of pax of Avro's) but they are gonne now and it was a SN Brussels Airlines destination in the past. would be the 11 Italian destination after Linate.
-Amsterdam: Some flights in the morning to feed their AFI network
-Dublin: to feed AFI and it would be a new market
-Bucharest: now only codeshare with Tarom, wich want to join Skyteam or was it Oneworld
-Glasgow: now reason for that but It would be nice
-Kiev: to expand their East-European network
-Bordeaux: AF is gonne on this route and it can feed AFI if there are good connections
-Saint Petersburg: with codeshares with Rossiya or so and with connections with AFI, would be a nice destination.
-Valencia: just a nice place.
-Edinburgh: to fight with the new Ryanair route, they will fly from Charleroi
-Ljubljana: again a nice past destination
And some destinations wich can use more frequenties if they lost a codeshare with a non-*A partner or for another reason.
-Helsinki
-Paris: to reduce waiting times for incomming pax from AFI
-Prague
-Budapest
-Rome
-Nice: for better connections with AFI
Let me now what you think about this and if there are some things possible for next winter or next summer. I now some destinations will never come and can never work, but let me now if this things can start the next few years.

[kiwiandrew]

-Edinburgh: to fight with the new Ryanair route, they will fly from Charleroi
.

why would SN do EDI from CRL when they can ( and do ) codeshare BRU-EDI on the BD operated service ?

[RoMax]

I don't mean that they would fly this route from CRL. But I forget the BD codeshare indeed. But what about the others?
And I said it already don't beat me if I say something stupid, I'm not perfect ok.

[tolipanebas]

I fully agree with tolipanebas's posts. It's depressing to see someone saying everything you are going to say (and probably in a more professional and knowlegeable way) before you have time to say it yourself

Sorry for snatching this from under your nose then!

I am not going to reply to every single reply made here, since there have been way to many of them added while being away, so I am just going to make some general remarks:

NATL routes are inherently low yielding routes (especially for an airline which can offer only a once daily frequency), so given the fact SN's resources aren't unlimited (both financially and fleet-wise) it will take a long time before it will make sense for them to deploy an A330 over the Atlantic iso sending it down to Africa.
Just have a look at the average ticket price on NYC vs DLA for instance, to understand what I am saying...

IF SN is ever going to serve a route over the atlantic itself, it will definitely be a route for which there is enough O&D demand AND which can not be picked up by a partner airline (meaning it doesn't link to a hub of theirs). With this in mind, the number of routes is fairly limited (2 or 3 at best).
Prior to SN's entry in STAR, YUL could be seen as such a destination (which is why I have repeatedly mentioned it as a possible future transatlantic destination of SN) and it is no secret SN was actually planning on serving the route with its own metal (they even applied for slots, albeit not on a daily basis), yet obviously now that they are going to join STAR, it makes far more sense to let AC fly the route, especially if it can be served on a daily basis!
Today, I'd say the least unlikely NATL route to see them ever operate on would be BOS...

The European network of SN is currently operating at really low loadfactors (60% on average) and is making a loss, so I'd be very cautious to open many new routes, unless there's a clear demand for such a route.
From the list of destinations I've seen published, half have actually been operated to before without success....
I won't repeat everything I've written on St Petersburg, Kiev or half the destinations mentioned, other than that there's a search option on this site and or alternatively you can just crol up if you really want to hear an opinion on them. The only thing I'd try to do is improve connecting possibilities with FR, through a second morning flight to CDG, an moring arrival from NCE and some kind of link to the west of France (BOD) in collaboration with the other STAR partners. And that's it!

FInally, some financial information on SN:
http://www.trends.be/nl/economie/bedrij ... ljoen.html
Now we know LH has given 25M euro to invest in SN's expansion;
that's about what it needs to comfortably operate 2 additional widebodies for a couple of years...
Please limit your plans to the reality.
I'd guess that would mean 1 A330 in 2010 (to be announced in a couple of weeks?) and 1 A330 in 2011.
Both of them deployed on AFI to open 3 or 4 new destinations and to increase 2 or 3 destinations in frequencies (first plane), and then to go to more non-stop flights (second plane).

[BrightCedars]

The good thing is that LH has a lot of statistics of those destinations that have some or more O&D market out of BRU and are currently used by customers via FRA. If it turns out there are already like 40 people flying between BRU and BOS via FRA on any given day, then LH would know that the market is maybe for 120-150 pax per day when taking into account connections via BA and AF/KL. Thus opening BRU-BOS nonstop would make sense, even if it would still be an investment in the beginning to make the route known, acquiring competitor's passengers, etc. And there are dozens, hundreds of routes where LH knows what number of pax come from BRU and connect in FRA or MUC or ZRH or VIE. I think the first new routes will be dictated by that rather than by anything else, shifting the BRU O&D traffic back to direct flights in and out of BRU.

Another thing is that the focus definitely will be on Africa. And that means SN will need new hardware, and they will be getting new hardware soon enough in a form or another, I trust this. Probably a bunch of recent or factory fresh A330s to begin with, eventually even replacing their existing fleet, or at least removing the odd ball type in the fleet. Someone listing the A330 engine types within LH group would be welcome.

Thanks to the alliances, in a not too distant future, there will be SN flights codesharing to EWR, IAD, ORD, YUL and YYZ, only JFK will be lost and maybe a solution would be found for that if needed. With multiple daily flights FRA-JFK with a lot of connecting passengers, it is rather easy for LH to re-arrange traffic of some transfer passengers via BRU tu support and sustain such service.

[RoMax]

Could it be possible that LH start flights like FRA-BRU-JFK-BRU-FRA to back up the lost JFK flight, or start FRA-BRU-BOS-BRU-FRA to fly to Boston via BRU without taking a risk for SN with their own LH metal? With this way you can provide both FRA or Munich (one-stop in BRU)as Brussels with flights to JFK and Boston. But only as extra flights above the flights that exist now because I think LH will provide their pax also non-stop services.

[kiwiandrew]

I don't mean that they would fly this route from CRL. But I forget the BD codeshare indeed. But what about the others?
And I said it already don't beat me if I say something stupid, I'm not perfect ok.

sorry , my comment was not meant as an attack on you so please dont interpret it that way - as for not being perfect , well , I misunderstood what you meant so I guess that leaves us both equally imprefect

[RoMax]

I don't mean that they would fly this route from CRL. But I forget the BD codeshare indeed. But what about the others?
And I said it already don't beat me if I say something stupid, I'm not perfect ok.

sorry , my comment was not meant as an attack on you so please dont interpret it that way - as for not being perfect , well , I misunderstood what you meant so I guess that leaves us both equally imprefect

Ok I understand it.

[HighInTheSky]

I'd guess that would mean 1 A330 in 2010 (to be announced in a couple of weeks?) and 1 A330 in 2011.
Both of them deployed on AFI to open 3 or 4 new destinations and to increase 2 or 3 destinations in frequencies (first plane), and then to go to more non-stop flights (second plane).

But the question remains... Where are we going to get these planes?

Already 2 years they say that they have found a extra A330, but which one is it?

I hope we'll hear something soon

[RoMax]

The new long haul routes for next summer need to be announced around this time to promote their routes. Icelandair did it for their BRU route (not really long haul but I need to say something )and Air canada did this to, so I think we will hear something in the time from now until October/november about a new plane and routes.
But I ask it again, is it possible that LH will fly to Boston and maybe JFK from BRU? Maybe via Munchen or Frankfurt with a A330 or A343. A route like FRA-BRU-BOS-BRU-FRA. This can be a solution, fly routes with a big ask for pax (Boston for sure, JFK maybe not) but with planes and crew of LH(or half SN, half LH crew), SN can earn money on this routes by codeshare but they don't take a risk theirself. And I mean extra flights above the flights that LH is serving now to JFK an Boston, becaus otherwise this would be a bad idea for LH pax, because they need to make a stop in BRU even without changing the plane this would be not a good idea, but extra flights...
I don't now if this is a good idea but I ask it to you people

[sab319]

If SN really wants to keep JFK in their network, they could just code-share on the 9W BRU-JFK flight...

[Air Key West]

Indeed, why could this not be an option ?
To MrBoeing : I, for myself, don't think your suggestions are commercially sound.
Things should be seen from a Star Alliance point of view, but also and mainly from a LH Group point of view (LH Group = LH, LX, SN, OS, BD).
Because slots come at a premium (expensive and/or not available) at LHR (BD) and because after LHR, BRU has the best (geographically closest) location to fly to North America compared to FRA/MUC/ZRH/VIE, flying to this part of the world from BRU would make sense if the LH Group wanted to increase the frequency of flights to certain North American destinations or wanted to open new routes.
In this case, it would make sense for LH to have the flight operated by SN from BRU (not a FRA-BRU-North America scenario, for instance). The LH group would, I think, fly its pax to BRU on short and medium haul planes to connect with the intercontinental flight at BRU.
As to BOS, in the summer of 2010, LH will fly to BOS 3 times (2x ex FRA + 1x ex MUC) and LX will fly it from ZRH. This means there will already be four LH Group flights to BOS per day. I am not sure there is a need for a fifth flight. What makes you say there is a big demand from pax to fly to BOS ? There probably is, but I am also tempted to add that the offer from all airlines combined (Star, oneworld, Skyteam) is sufficient to meet the demand and I serously doubt the LH Group will increase its number of flights to BOS in the current economic situation (which is far from over).

[RoMax]

I don't think SN will start a Atlantic flight with own metal this or next year. But Boston will work really good from BRU. It was one of the most succesfull Sabena destinations in the past. And there is still a lot of ask for this route. And that's wy I proposed that LH can maybe fly from Germany via BRU to Boston with their own planes, than SN don't take any risk. Or they can base 1 plane in BRU for this route to BOS and the cabin crew can be half SN and half LH.

[BrightCedars]

I'm thinking that now with AA out of the way, could it be that SN and 9W would actually extend their partnership over the Atlantic? Times being what they are, 9W could be interested in having a now somewhat stronger partner to help fill the planes. This could bring SN EWR, JFK and YYZ in a very short time. And as in the case of YUL where 9W could add a destination to its scissor hub, any new route operated by SN could be as well, e.g. the long talked about BOS. Soon operating YUL (AC), YYZ (AC/9W), EWR x 2 (CO, 9W), JFK (9W), IAD (UA) and ORD (UA), not to mention the seasonal/intermittent PHL (US) withouth any metal involved would be nice virtual offer already!

[Atlantis]

Soon operating YUL (AC), YYZ (AC/9W), EWR x 2 (CO, 9W), JFK (9W), IAD (UA) and ORD (UA), not to mention the seasonal/intermittent PHL (US) withouth any metal involved would be nice virtual offer already!

You forgot DL who is also flying to JFK out of BRU.

[LJ]

-Amsterdam: Some flights in the morning to feed their AFI network
-Dublin: to feed AFI and it would be a new market
-Kiev: to expand their East-European network
-Saint Petersburg: with codeshares with Rossiya or so and with connections with AFI, would be a nice destination.

Amsterdam, SN has again received slots for a daily BRU-AMS-BRU. However I wouldn´t be suprised if they return the slots at the last moment (like they did this summer)

Dublin, why do you think no other airline flies to DUB than EI??

Kiev, isn´t this already served by another airline?

Saint-Petersburg, didn´t Rossiya annouced close cooperation with AF/KL?

[Atlantis]

-Amsterdam: Some flights in the morning to feed their AFI network
-Dublin: to feed AFI and it would be a new market
-Kiev: to expand their East-European network
-Saint Petersburg: with codeshares with Rossiya or so and with connections with AFI, would be a nice destination.

Amsterdam, SN has again received slots for a daily BRU-AMS-BRU. However I wouldn´t be suprised if they return the slots at the last moment (like they did this summer)

Dublin, why do you think no other airline flies to DUB than EI??

Kiev, isn´t this already served by another airline?

Saint-Petersburg, didn´t Rossiya annouced close cooperation with AF/KL?

Ukraine International Airlines is flying daily, except on Saturday, to/from BRU in codeshare with SN