Current Market Outlook 2007, Boeing sees a bright and prosperous future with a substantial growth for aviation.But isn't this a dream, since fuel will become scarce and expensive, and environment needs will be imperative?
Boeing dreams....
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Boeing dreams....
In their Current Market Outlook 2007, Boeing sees a bright and prosperous future with a substantial growth for aviation.
Current Market Outlook 2007, Boeing sees a bright and prosperous future with a substantial growth for aviation.
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Gliderpilot
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The last two and a half years, Boeing and Airbus got more than 5,000 orders for new airplanes.
25,000 (without regional jets) planes, thats around 1,250 orders a year for both (Boeing and Airbus) or 625 each. The orders in the past few years were well above that...
Airbus has some market outlook too, last year it was almost 23,000 planes, up 5,000 from the previous year. So maybe Airbus will this year predict also something around 28,000 planes to be delivered in the next 20 years...
So maybe 28,000 is a little optimistic, but I think it will be quite close as they are not stupid at Boeing.
25,000 (without regional jets) planes, thats around 1,250 orders a year for both (Boeing and Airbus) or 625 each. The orders in the past few years were well above that...
Airbus has some market outlook too, last year it was almost 23,000 planes, up 5,000 from the previous year. So maybe Airbus will this year predict also something around 28,000 planes to be delivered in the next 20 years...
So maybe 28,000 is a little optimistic, but I think it will be quite close as they are not stupid at Boeing.
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peacemaker
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ElcoB, you raise a good point about the environment, but I believe that Boeing's market outlook takes into consideration airplanes with composite materials that will be more fuel efficient than current airlines. In the past months, as well, we have heard both manufacturers looking to develop more environmentally friendly airplanes.
Well, with the latest Stern and IPCC report in mind, I worry a bit because we hear so little about new technologies....David747 wrote:........ looking to develop more environmentally friendly airplanes.
If you burn 25% less fuel in an engine , but you double the number of engines (as Boeing sees it), it's not of much help.
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Gliderpilot
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Huh? Explain please...ElcoB wrote:If you burn 25% less fuel in an engine , but you double the number of engines (as Boeing sees it), it's not of much help.
The 787 will use 20% less fuel than current aircraft.
The 747-8F trip cost will be 17% lower than the 744 with same amount of cargo, mainly due to fuel consumption. The most important improvement is the powerplant in the new 747, derivatives from 787's engines...
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Zenfookpower
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Getting all worked up about what might happen with airplane emissions 19/20 years from now...ElcoB wrote:Long story in short.:Gliderpilot wrote:...
Huh? Explain please...
* Governments worldwide agree emissions must go down.(Kyoto protocol)
* IF you dubble the fleet (see Boeing), even with 25% reduction per unit, total emissions are 50% higher.
You should also worry about car emissions, cattle emissions, human emissions, developing nation emissions..etc..
I am sure that Boeing knows very well what they will be able to do with improved technology, alternate fuels and other less emission new fuel sources ...
Enjoy what you have today.....
Lots of people are concerned, remember Kathrina: bad precautions lead to big disaster.Zenfookpower wrote:Getting all worked up about what might happen with airplane emissions 19/20 years from now...
Oh, but I certainly do. If you wonna discuss clean energy.....but this is a aviation forum.You should also worry about car emissions, cattle emissions, human emissions, developing nation emissions..etc..
Well, this is what I'm curious about. So far we have big declarations but very little innovation.I am sure that Boeing knows very well what they will be able to do with improved technology, alternate fuels and other less emission new fuel sources ...
Maybe I missed something, I keep looking....
I hope our children and grand-children will still have something to enjoy too.Enjoy what you have today.....
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FLY4HOURS.BE
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- Location: Antwerp, Belgium
I think most of the additional aircraft will join countries with great economic potential such as China, Africa, India and South America.
China is a confirmed candidate with Airbus receiving a 150+ aircraft order for the A320 family from several Chinese sources recently as well as confirming that production of the A320 will start in 2008.
Transport facilities will improve the development on long-term in flourishing countries. Transport facilities include airplanes and airports.
Once development is achieved, those smoking and durty factories will be removed and improved technology will be used...
The booming aviation industry will help these country achieve their improvements as a constructive tool...
In addition, aviation creates tons of jobs, which contributes to a good economy.
My fear is not in a 9/11-like happening, the continuously rising petro-prices are becoming a greater and greater challenge the airlines have to cope with. Alternative energy is going to be the key if aviation wants to keep the curve rising steadily.
China is a confirmed candidate with Airbus receiving a 150+ aircraft order for the A320 family from several Chinese sources recently as well as confirming that production of the A320 will start in 2008.
Transport facilities will improve the development on long-term in flourishing countries. Transport facilities include airplanes and airports.
Once development is achieved, those smoking and durty factories will be removed and improved technology will be used...
The booming aviation industry will help these country achieve their improvements as a constructive tool...
In addition, aviation creates tons of jobs, which contributes to a good economy.
My fear is not in a 9/11-like happening, the continuously rising petro-prices are becoming a greater and greater challenge the airlines have to cope with. Alternative energy is going to be the key if aviation wants to keep the curve rising steadily.
Fly4hours, making the path to airline pilot affordable to all
Maybe the aerospace industry has to have a major re-think on how it flies.
Remember the U2 spy plane. It had a very high aspect ratio wing, looked like a sailplane, and flew like one, went enormous distances on very little fuel.
Perhaps in say 20 years time we may have a four engine airliner that has a similar wing, flies up to 60,000 feet or so and then shuts down two engines for the cruise which would be part soaring and part power.
Maybe a bit slower, but the fuel consumption would be down.
Cheers
Achace
Remember the U2 spy plane. It had a very high aspect ratio wing, looked like a sailplane, and flew like one, went enormous distances on very little fuel.
Perhaps in say 20 years time we may have a four engine airliner that has a similar wing, flies up to 60,000 feet or so and then shuts down two engines for the cruise which would be part soaring and part power.
Maybe a bit slower, but the fuel consumption would be down.
Cheers
Achace
Part of the problem with long thin wings is runway width restrictions.
A bit hazy on the details, but the A380 pushed those right to the limit (as will the 747-8). Longer is better, but if you hit the limit before you have the lift you need, then you have to make it wider. The rest are not restricted, but as everyone wants to cruise a .8 mach or a bit better, you can’t design for pure economy on those. There does not seem to be a market for a Sonic Econocruiser either.
Growth Note: SWA announced it would put 15 feer 737s into service (and it sounded like they would sell them as they were firm orders).
I wonder if we aren’t seeing the first hint that the growth phase is peaked out.
I am sure any near term surplus is easily sellable, as there is a definite need for modern 737/A320 replacements. Long term, it may be a lot less production.
I am not predict a huge bust, just a normal tapering off, and those that really need them may be able to get them sooner. Long terms sales maybe a lot less as well (single aisle, just replacement for the wide bodies is a huge group, let alone growth there)
A bit hazy on the details, but the A380 pushed those right to the limit (as will the 747-8). Longer is better, but if you hit the limit before you have the lift you need, then you have to make it wider. The rest are not restricted, but as everyone wants to cruise a .8 mach or a bit better, you can’t design for pure economy on those. There does not seem to be a market for a Sonic Econocruiser either.
Growth Note: SWA announced it would put 15 feer 737s into service (and it sounded like they would sell them as they were firm orders).
I wonder if we aren’t seeing the first hint that the growth phase is peaked out.
I am sure any near term surplus is easily sellable, as there is a definite need for modern 737/A320 replacements. Long term, it may be a lot less production.
I am not predict a huge bust, just a normal tapering off, and those that really need them may be able to get them sooner. Long terms sales maybe a lot less as well (single aisle, just replacement for the wide bodies is a huge group, let alone growth there)
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Zenfookpower
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- Location: The Great Lakes (USA)
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Zenfookpower
- Posts: 158
- Joined: 25 Sep 2005, 00:00
- Location: The Great Lakes (USA)
I agree.. that is the answer...we need more energy sources instead of less.....FLY4HOURS.BE wrote:.............................
My fear is not in a 9/11-like happening, the continuously rising petro-prices are becoming a greater and greater challenge the airlines have to cope with. Alternative energy is going to be the key if aviation wants to keep the curve rising steadily.
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smokejumper
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FLY4HOURS.BE
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Alternative energy can be found in abondance: natural gas for instance, which is far from being dirty. The only thing is aircraft system will need to be adapted, new engines developped,...
Electricity is also an interesting energy for aviation...You can stock alot of it in very limited volumes.
New forms of energy might be discovered in the next century and adapted. It is not long ago that the electric energy and the atomic energy has been discovered and used.
I like the 2 engines switch-off theory at cruise The only thing is that you can achieve the same by reducing the power of the four-engines, which is way easier than switching them off, creating also less drag 8)
Electricity is also an interesting energy for aviation...You can stock alot of it in very limited volumes.
New forms of energy might be discovered in the next century and adapted. It is not long ago that the electric energy and the atomic energy has been discovered and used.
I like the 2 engines switch-off theory at cruise
The only thing is that you can achieve the same by reducing the power of the four-engines, which is way easier than switching them off, creating also less drag 8)Fly4hours, making the path to airline pilot affordable to all