sn-remember wrote:
Agreed with all of you tolipanebas- except for the 5 wide- bodies!
These are the money makers and imhv should be given top priority for development and expansion.
Personnally I would see min 10 to 15 wide-bodies by 2010 to ompensate for the short-haul low yields routes: Focus on Africa (main target) and N-Atlantic
I can see your point and to some extend I can agree with it, although the North Atlantic would never be such a great money maker than Africa for SN and taking into account the limited resources SN has at its disposal, I drew not what I'd call my WISH LIST, but rather a MUST DO plan for the fleet renewal, hence I've left it out.
The MUST DO list for the fleet renewal at SN is:
Minimum 5 factory new A330s to serve around 15 African destinations with reasonable frequencies and without the frequent AOGs.
25 or so Airbus/Boeing narrow bodies to compete with the LCC on the European trunk routes without seat mile cost handicap.
10 to 15 regional jets to serve the low volume routes where no competition is expected and yield is still okay.
Additional expansion would indeed in my view best be oriented towards the long haul sector, notably North America, but only AFTER the above minimum fleet structure is guaranteed, because it is vital SN takes on a fleet structure which is suitable for a carrier in its position.
SN is a long haul niche operator with a European network which will soon see fierce LCC competition on all but a handfull of its routes, just like EI indeed as you have pointed out and just like EI, SN can not be safeguared from them with a too small fleet of old wide bodies (with the lowest dispatch reliability of all Airbus A330 operators BTW) and a huge fleet of high CASM regional jets. It is a scenario for disaster as it will put the airline in a constant disadvantaged cost position throughout their fleet, forcing it to scale back the network in response to competition without end in sight, but total annihilation.
Some people here will think I am just talking out of my neck, but I strongly hope SN realises they will not be able to compete with any LCC on their European routes with a fleet of regional planes, whether their old AVROs or new Sukois or Embraer jets because these planes all have the handicap they come with a CASM 30 to 50 % higher than the A319/737-7 used by the LCC (increasing even against the A320/738 ) and with the LCC settling at BRU, SN must concentrate their attention on the larger planes for it to have an equal chance, but for now, the signals I am getting indicate they are still stuck in yesterday's thinking (100 seaters are the best) and thus look for the best plane in that class...
WRONG in my view: that way SN will get itself yesterday's best fleet and find itself with an unsuitable fleet (operating cost wise that is) in 5 years from now, just like they do today.
Rather than do this fleet renewal plan inhouse, maybe they sould get some external help from reputated fleet planning consultants (SQ has the facility and I know LH too helps with consultancing), because I fear their is not enough skills at SN to fully see the big picture which is awaiting them:
Some figures to wake up to:
last year, yield on European routes dropped with 5% at LH and LH expect the same to happen over then next year too... and the year after...
Knowing how thin the margins are at SN, I hope this helps to see why planes with the lowest CASM will become greatly important over time even if it means they offer slightly more seats which require to be filled through low pricing, aggressive promotion etc, rather that just settle for the 'best 100 seater'...
Oh, and LH do know what they are talking about and how to run an airline, as they have just posted half year results: 1BN euro profit over the first 6 months.