Qatar goes with the 787

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bits44
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Qatar goes with the 787

Post by bits44 »

As was suspected this middle east carrier will go to Boeing, If this comes to fruition it will be an absolute killer blow to Airbus! Even though they have indicated they would order A350's they have yet to sign an order?

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RC20
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Post by RC20 »

There is a report that Virgin has also gone with the 787.

15 firm orders, 8 options and 20 purchase rights.

http://moora.yourguide.com.au/detail.as ... ry=general

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CX
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Re: Qatar goes with the 787

Post by CX »

bits44 wrote:As was suspected this middle east carrier will go to Boeing, If this comes to fruition it will be an absolute killer blow to Airbus! Even though they have indicated they would order A350's they have yet to sign an order?

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/ ... source=rss
Why is that an absolute killer blow to Airbus anyway? It's not like they won't order 80 A350s as a result of this right? Plus, the 'mystery' order was for a total of 30 787s, and if the Qatar order is already 30, then how about the Virgin order? that isn't accounted for?

RC20
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Post by RC20 »

Report that Air Canada has increased its order to 37 of the 787s (up from 14).


Death blow is obviously exaggerated, but this has the feel of “death by a thousand cuts”. Or was it the straw that broke the camels back, or all the straw before it?

So far, Boeing has very successfully penetrated Airbus customer base with the 787, and Airbus has two firm orders for the A350. No indication that any Boeing customer is going to switch.

If the 30 with Qatar is true, how many options?

I would say the jury is in on the A350 vs. the 787, and the 787 has won hands down.

Singapore has not firmed up its order (and to quote them, it was placed as a hedge against a 787 failure). They can drop that order. Qatar has not firmed up the 80. Emirates has only said good things about it since the bidding began.

It looks like anyone that has to compete head on with the 787, is going to buy 787s. That leaves the 777 market at stake, and Boeing has a minimum of 6 years of no competition there (8 really as ramp up is slow for the A350). If the A350 is late…….

Within the next year, everyone will know what they are getting from Boeing.

It gets bad enough with the A350, and Airbus will re-design again. I think we are to that point. That would be another 2 year delay, and for a product that matches what Boeing has, not exceed it (you have to have them before you can enter the learning curve).

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BrightCedars
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Post by BrightCedars »

Whatever the situation and future at Airbus regarding the A350, which I hope prosperous, no one can take away the fact that the Boeing 787, before first assembly, will soon have clocked 1,000 orders and commitments of all kinds. I'm pretty sure it's a success never enjoyed before by any aircraft type launch, be it a wide body or even a narrow one. Congratulations to Boeing on this achievement!

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David747
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Post by David747 »

If this is true, it would be a disappointment for the A350 program. Very surprising that Qatar would go with the 787 when they recently announced that they would order 80 A350's.

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cageyjames
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Post by cageyjames »

I think the simple fact that you can still pick up 787s before the A350 even arrives is making airlines buy from Boeing.
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CX
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Post by CX »

They are only getting 787-8s (if this report is true), which isn't really in direct competition with the whole XWB line (the -800 is already bigger than the 787-8)...
Qatar has A346s to replace and that can't be replaced by 787s, but the -1000XWB.

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Post by smokejumper »

Obviously, the pendulum has swung toward Boeing’s favor over the past few years. They now have 2 planes that are doing very well – the 777 and the 787. By offering 2 different aircraft, Boeing is offering planes that closely match a wide-range of customer’s needs. Airbus’ offering, the A350XWB, is intended to overlap the 2 Boeing planes and appeal to a wide variety of customers; however, it may end up trying to cover too much territory and not be optimized for any. Several major orders have been announced this week and the trend will probably continue.

Comparing the Airbus 350XWB to Boeing’s 777 and 787 reveals (data from manufacturer’s web sites):

Airbus 350-800 270 passengers 8,500 mi. / 15,750 km. range
Airbus 350-900 314 passengers 8,400 mi. / 15,540 km. range
Airbus 350-1000 350 passengers 8,200 mi. / 15,400 km. range

Boeing 777-200 305 passengers 5,210 mi. / 8,385 km. range
Boeing 777-200ER 301 passengers 7,730 mi. / 12,440 km. range
Boeing 777-200LR 301 passengers 9,460 mi. / 17,446 km. range
Boeing 777-300 368 passengers 5,955 mi. / 9,583 km. range
Boeing 777-300ER 365 passengers 7,880 mi. / 12,681 km. range

Boeing 787-3 290 passengers 3,500 mi. / 5,632 km. range
Boeing 787-8 223 passengers 8,500 mi. / 13,680 km. range
Boeing 787-9 259 passengers 8,800 mi. / 14,162 km. range

The Airbus 350XWB is more aimed at the 777 than the 787, however, little design work has been completed. All projections are just that - projections. The capacity of the A350 is 270 to 350 passengers; while the B777 carries 301 to 350 passengers. The B787 carries 223 to 259 passengers (this excludes the 787-3, which occupies a special niche – high capacity, short range). The range of the B787-9 is slightly greater than the A350, but that may be of little consequence, unless an airline really needs the 300 extra miles. Generally, the ranges of the A350 and the B787 are comparable.

Boeing’s 777 has been in service since 1995 and when the A350 enters service in 2014-15, the 777 will be 18 years old and planning is probably underway now for replacement or most probably, a major upgrade consisting of new engines, aerodynamic improvements and system upgrades. Certainly the overall A350 will be more advanced than the 777 currently is, but Boeing has demonstrated a great ability to update and modernize planes (737 Next Generation, 747-400 and now the 747-8i) and maintain a competitive product. I am sure that Boeing will do whatever is required to maintain a competitive product in the large plane market. This is too good a franchise to surrender.

Turning to the B787, it appears that Airbus has abandoned the entire market segment of 220 to 260 passengers to Boeing, and this, we now observe, is exactly where the action is. Airbus needs to develop two separate planes, one smaller than the A350/B777 to compete with the 787 and, a competitor to the larger B777. If they don’t develop a smaller plane, they will loose this “sweet spot”.

The market will examine each offering’s performance, the manufacturer’s price and performance guarantees and, then decide which plane best suits their needs. My money is on Boeing for the smaller market segment and a competitive toss-up for the larger market (300-350 passengers).

Airbus made a major blunder in committing itself to the A380; this offering, while a magnificent engineering triumph is sapping financial and engineering resources. Airbus has raised the break-even point to 450 units. Obviously, I do not know their financial assumptions, but I’d guess that the 450 unit number is probably low, especially considering the time-value-of-money and other costs associated with the project. Airbus needs to find the resources to develop a new, smaller (220-260 seat plane to maintain a competitive line-up.

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Post by RC20 »

Well stated.

What I find funny is that the 787-3 is considered "short range".

At one time that would have been a medium range airliner. How times have chanaged.

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CX
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Post by CX »

I dont' think 777-200 and 300s are ordered anymore right? they are already 'improved' to the 200ER/LR and 300ER, and what will stop Airbus to improve the XWB when a more competitive 777 or a 777 replacement enters service?
And how is it known that Airbus has just done "little" design work on the XWB?

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Post by smokejumper »

CX wrote:I dont' think 777-200 and 300s are ordered anymore right? they are already 'improved' to the 200ER/LR and 300ER, and what will stop Airbus to improve the XWB when a more competitive 777 or a 777 replacement enters service?
And how is it known that Airbus has just done "little" design work on the XWB?
If you order a 777 today, I believe that only the improved versons are avaialble. Who'd want the earlier, less efficient planes?

The A350-900 (the first version) is scheduled to first fly in 2012 and enter service in 2013. It is poised to compete against Boeing's 777-200ER and 787-10. Since the first flight is 5 years from now, the design is probably at the same stage as Boeing's 787 was in 2002. Conceptual design is currently underway and preliminary design is probably in the beginning stages. Assuming a first flight in 2012, I'd verture to guess that detailed design will start in late 2008 and proceed through 2011. Then manufacturing engineering and tooling will be underway. Obviously, there is a lot of overlap in this schedule. Someone is planning production lines and factories right now.

I have no insider information of Airbus' current status, but if my assumption is correct, Airbus has an idea of what the A350 will be, but airlines are buying the product (just as ANA did with the 787) on a conceptual design. This does not mean that the offering is a total unknown, but that the promises should be conservative to allow for these unknowns. Until final design is complete and better estimates can be made of the weight of each component, weight estimates are just that - estimates. The final proof of the pudding is when the plane flys - then we'll all know what kind of a beast it is!

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Post by smokejumper »

John Lehey was quoted in the April 26 issue of Aviation Week as saying the concept studies on the A350 are underway. See:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... es%20Goals

"Work on technical specifications of the A350 continues. The aircraft's concept phase should continue through the end of 2008. Didier Evrard, executive VP for the A350, said risk-sharing partners and suppliers for critical components such as landing gear and nacelles should be identified this summer. When questioned about the status of GE supplying an engine for the aircraft, Evrard said Airbus has "always foreseen they'd join later and that is the status today."

foxtrot_lima_yankee
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Post by foxtrot_lima_yankee »

Same thread was discussed the last year at Farnborough and the year before.

Qatar likes to play with A & B and he does that obviously just to put pressure on them in order to have a better deal.
DId they finally order last year at Farnborough?
No they cancelled their order with Boeing, nd made them look stupid

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PYX
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Post by PYX »

foxtrot_lima_yankee wrote: No they cancelled their order with Boeing, nd made them look stupid
Sorry, I don't believe that is correct. On 30 May 2006, Qatar ordered 6, B777-200LRs and 14, B777-300ERs, and on 13 December 2006, they ordered 2, B777 Freighters. Deliveries will start in November of this year.

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TexasGuy
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Post by TexasGuy »

PYX wrote:
foxtrot_lima_yankee wrote: No they cancelled their order with Boeing, nd made them look stupid
Sorry, I don't believe that is correct. On 30 May 2006, Qatar ordered 6, B777-200LRs and 14, B777-300ERs, and on 13 December 2006, they ordered 2, B777 Freighters. Deliveries will start in November of this year.
I thought they ordered a few B777's. Wasnt sure how many but i thought there were a few in thier fleet.
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achace
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Post by achace »

I think Qatar found themselves in a similar situation to Lufthansa.

LH took the 748I because they needed a 400 seat airliner and the A380 was too much plane.

Similarly Qatar need a plane with around 220 seats, and the smallest XWB is again too much plane.

Pretty sure from Qatar sources here in Manila that the XWB deal will be pushing through.

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boeing797
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Is Airbus desperate?

Post by boeing797 »

Any thougts about this move of Airbus?

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... rates.html

Thanks gentlemen!

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TexasGuy
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Re: Is Airbus desperate?

Post by TexasGuy »

boeing797 wrote:Any thougts about this move of Airbus?

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... rates.html

Thanks gentlemen!
This is interesting and it is a large number of aircraft. Seems silly to go with the A330 when the next generation of widebodies are near ready for service and are available for purchase. Perhaps the deep discounts will ofset the efficiencies of B787.

Very interesting article indeed. ;)
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Post by smokejumper »

Low acquisition costs will help offset any operational cost penalties like increased fuel burn or maintenance. With the price of oil rising, it will be difficult to predict how deep a discount is needed to equlaize the situation.

This is something Airbus must do to keep their customer base loyal. Once someone leaves the fold, you don't have a chance to recappture them for another 20 years. It is always cheaper to keep the customer you have than to get new ones.

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