Europe’s airport expansion plans could breach climate limits, T&E study warns

European airports are planning significant increases in capacity at a time when aviation needs to reduce its climate impact, according to a new study by environmental organisation Transport & Environment (T&E).

The report, titled “Overshoot: How expansion plans break European airports’ carbon limits”, examines the expansion plans of 20 major European airports across 10 countries. T&E compares projected traffic and emissions with carbon budgets it considers compatible with the Paris Agreement.

According to T&E, all 20 airports analysed would exceed their carbon budgets under the growth scenarios examined. Across the airports included in the study, the organisation estimates that planned expansion could result in approximately 225 million tonnes of additional CO? emissions beyond the emissions associated with existing capacity.

Brussels Airport included in study

Brussels Airport is one of the 20 airports examined by T&E, putting Belgium directly into the debate over future aviation growth and climate targets.

T&E argues that airport expansion should not be assessed solely on the basis of expected passenger demand. New terminals, runways and other infrastructure can enable additional flights for decades, potentially increasing aviation emissions at a time when governments and the industry are committed to reducing them.

The organisation’s analysis suggests that Brussels Airport, like the other airports examined, faces a gap between projected growth and the carbon budget used in the study’s 1.7°C warming scenario.

Efficiency and SAF

The study also looks at the role of newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). T&E acknowledges that these measures can reduce emissions per flight, but argues that they may not compensate for continued growth in passenger numbers and flight activity.

The organisation says this creates a potential mismatch between airport expansion plans and European climate policy. It argues that efficiency improvements need to be considered alongside traffic growth rather than used to justify unlimited expansion.

T&E proposes the introduction of airport-specific carbon budgets. Under such a system, proposed expansion projects would have to demonstrate that the additional aviation activity could remain within a defined emissions limit.

The findings are likely to add to the debate surrounding future capacity at Brussels Airport and other European hubs. Airports and airlines generally argue that additional capacity is needed to maintain connectivity and support economic activity, while environmental organisations increasingly question whether continued growth is compatible with climate targets.

The study does not single out Brussels Airport, but presents it as part of a wider European pattern in which planned aviation growth could exceed the carbon budgets available to the sector.

The conclusions and figures in this article are based on the analysis published by Transport & Environment, an environmental advocacy organisation. Its methodology and conclusions represent T&E’s assessment of European airport expansion and aviation emissions.

Read the full Transport & Environment study: Overshoot: How expansion plans break European airports’ carbon limits