SAS estimates that Scandinavian aviation alone will require tens of thousands of tonnes of e-SAF by 2030, rising steeply in the following decade. Without rapid investment in production capacity, prices for sustainable fuel could climb toward regulatory penalty levels—far above current fossil jet fuel costs—intensifying financial pressure on airlines.
At the same time, the industry is already grappling with a more immediate fuel shock. Following disruptions in global energy markets, jet fuel prices have roughly doubled, prompting SAS to increase ticket prices by around 10%. The airline’s CEO, Anko van der Werff, confirmed that these higher costs have been passed directly to consumers.
Despite this, SAS says its summer schedule remains intact, with no planned cancellations for now.
Taken together, the developments highlight a dual risk for European aviation: a short-term crisis driven by volatile fossil fuel prices, and a longer-term structural imbalance in sustainable fuel supply. Without accelerated investment and policy support, SAS warns that Europe could face a new energy crisis in aviation—this time embedded within its own climate transition framework.