Brussels Airlines’ Q1 results: Resilient performance amid fuel shock and supply risk

Brussels Airlines reported an adjusted EBIT of -€55 million in the first quarter of 2026, a 4% decline year-on-year, reflecting a mixed start to the year. While January and February showed strong operational and commercial performance, disruptions and external pressures in March weighed heavily on results.

The airline significantly increased capacity, operating 11% more flights and carrying 1.9 million passengers across more than 15,000 flights. Revenue rose by 12.8% to €343 million, supported by robust demand, particularly on sub-Saharan African routes.

However, March proved challenging. A national demonstration on March 12 disrupted operations at Brussels Airport, limiting capacity growth to just 1% for the month. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove fuel costs sharply higher, with fuel cost per available seat kilometre rising by around 14%.

Looking ahead, Brussels Airlines is adjusting its European network capacity ahead of the summer season, including redeployments linked to Middle East flight cancellations. Despite ongoing uncertainty, the airline remains focused on flexibility, operational reliability, and continued investment in its fleet and customer experience.

During the presentation of the results to the press, Brussels Airlines’ CEO Dorothea von Boxberg and its CFO Nina Öwerdieck focused on the following three issues.

1. Fuel prices surge: hedging provides cushion, not immunity

Fuel remains the single largest cost driver for airlines, accounting for roughly 26% of total operating expenses at Brussels Airlines. In Q1 2026, this cost base came under acute pressure following geopolitical disruptions linked to the Iran crisis.

During the first two weeks of the crisis, jet fuel prices spiked by approximately 133%, creating immediate upward pressure on operating costs. However, the airline benefits from being part of the Lufthansa Group, which centrally manages fuel procurement and risk exposure.

Key mitigating factor:

• about 80% of fuel consumption is hedged, significantly dampening short-term price shocks

That said, hedging is not a full shield. The remaining unhedged exposure—and the need for monthly fuel purchasing cycles—forces the group to continuously recalibrate its position based on:

• Market price trends
• Geopolitical outlook
• Risk tolerance

This creates a dynamic balancing act: locking in prices too early risks overpaying if markets stabilise, while delaying purchases increases exposure to further spikes.

2. Kerosene supply constraints: a short-term buffer with medium-term risk

Beyond pricing, physical availability of kerosene has emerged as a more immediate operational concern.

Brussels Airlines reported four consecutive weeks without supply from traditional suppliers, forcing it to actively diversify sourcing channels. While the situation is currently under control, it introduces a new layer of operational fragility.

Current status:

• Fuel needs are secured for approximately 4 to 6 weeks
• Alternative supply chains have been partially activated

However, the risk profile changes beyond that window. A prolonged shortage would not trigger an abrupt halt in operations but rather a gradual degradation of capacity, including:

• Progressive flight cancellations
• Increased passenger compensation costs
• Network adjustments to prioritise key routes

To mitigate consumption, the airline has already implemented fuel-saving measures, such as:

• Reduced reliance on the Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) during ground operations
• Broader operational efficiency initiatives across the fleet

This reflects a shift from purely financial fuel management to physical resource optimisation, a scenario rarely seen outside major crises.

3. Outlook: structurally stronger, commercially supported

Despite these headwinds, the forward outlook for Brussels Airlines remains relatively solid.

Compared to the post-pandemic period, the airline is now:

• Operationally more stable
• Financially more disciplined
• Better integrated within the Lufthansa Group framework

Crucially, fuel hedging continues to provide a protective buffer, even in extreme volatility scenarios.

On the demand side:

• Summer bookings remain strong, indicating sustained passenger appetite
• Pricing power is intact, though still governed by supply-demand dynamics rather than unilateral increases

While ticket prices have risen, the airline has applied targeted fuel surcharges on long-haul routes, allowing partial cost pass-through without broadly distorting demand.

Additional operational considerations

Several secondary factors further contextualise Q1 performance:

• The cancellation of 20,000 flights within the Lufthansa Group has not impacted Brussels Airlines, highlighting its relative operational stability
• airBaltic will continue to support summer operations through wet-lease agreements, albeit at a reduced scale:
  • 1 to 3 aircraft in 2026, compared to 4 in 2025
  • Flexible deployment depending on seasonal demand

Conclusion: Stability under stress

Brussels Airlines exits Q1 2026 in a position that can best be described as resilient but exposed.

• Resilient, thanks to hedging strategies, strong demand, and Lufthansa Group integration
• Exposed, due to unprecedented fuel price volatility and emerging supply constraints

The next critical inflexion point lies just weeks ahead: if fuel supply normalises, the airline is well positioned to capitalise on a strong summer season. If not, operational disruptions could gradually erode both capacity and profitability.

In either case, Q1 demonstrates that in today’s aviation environment, fuel risk is no longer just a cost variable—it is a strategic constraint.