A recent analysis by Transport & Environment suggests that escalating tensions involving Iran could significantly impact airline operating costs. The study estimates that fuel expenses on long-haul flights from Europe have increased by an average of €88 per passenger, driven by higher oil prices and market instability. On shorter intra-European routes, the increase is estimated at around €29 per passenger.
The rise is linked to concerns over potential disruptions in global oil supply, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s flows. Airlines may partially absorb these costs, but fare increases or fuel surcharges cannot be ruled out if volatility persists.
Study: Iran crisis: a moment of reckoning for European aviation (Transport & Environment)