Air cargo closes 2025 on a high, but e-commerce headwinds signal softer outlook

Global air cargo ended a volatile 2025 with solid momentum, recording a 6% year-on-year increase in volumes in December and full-year growth of 4%, according to industry analysts at Xeneta. Stronger-than-expected demand in the final quarter reflected shippers’ continued shift toward airfreight for speed and reliability amid disruption and economic uncertainty.

Despite this resilience, signs are emerging of a more cautious outlook for 2026. Xeneta forecasts more modest volume growth of 2–3% this year, citing weakening e-commerce trends—particularly out of China—as a key concern. Low-value and cross-border e-commerce exports from China have stalled, with shipments to the US collapsing following de minimis restrictions, while growth to Europe has slowed significantly.

Market dynamics in late 2025 also saw demand outpacing capacity growth, yet airfreight rates continued to decline. Average global rates fell 4% year-on-year in December to USD 2.83 per kg, extending a downward trend seen in the second half of the year. Spot rates weakened across most major trade lanes year-on-year, even as month-on-month increases appeared in some corridors due to seasonal capacity constraints.

Looking ahead, increasing regulation of e-commerce—spanning the US, EU, China and parts of Asia—combined with pressure on consumer spending power, is expected to dampen one of air cargo’s key growth drivers. At the same time, contracting behaviour remains short-term focused, with shippers reluctant to lock in long-term rates amid expectations of further price softening.

Overall, while air cargo has proven resilient through disruption, Xeneta warns that market fundamentals point to softer demand and more shipper-friendly pricing conditions in 2026.