[Eurocontrol] Charting the European Aviation recovery: 2021 COVID-19 impacts and 2022 outlook

2021 was the year aviation hoped to get back on its feet after the catastrophic pandemic impacts of 2020. This Think Paper uses Eurocontrol’s unique network data to show the cumulative impacts of this year’s partial recovery on all aspects of European aviation. Mass vaccinations and the EU Digital COVID Certificate helped drive a strong summer traffic bounce that has endured despite Omicron and rising infection levels, proving the sector’s resilience as we enter 2022.

KEY CONCLUSIONS & OUTLOOK 2022

? 2021 saw a partial but sustained traffic recovery in Europe, starting with -64% in January vs 2019 levels, and ending it at -22% of 2019 levels in December. Mass vaccinations and the EU Digital COVID certificate helped deliver a solid summer recovery, and traffic has remained relatively stable at over 70% since the summer. However, total 2021 traffic was -44% of 2019 levels, 4.9 million flights fewer than 2019 – and not substantially better than 2020 (6.1 million fewer).

? The impacts of reduced traffic continued to be unevenly shared, with the five worst-impacted countries all in the north (-55% to -62% traffic), while the five least-impacted were all in the south (-8% to -27%).

? Greater predictability and returning travel have helped airlines and airports stay afloat, without however bringing balance sheets back into the black. Airline losses for 2021 stood at €18.5 bn with 1.4-1.5 bn fewer passengers, even if this was not as heavy as 2020’s disastrous losses (€22.2 bn and 1.7 bn). Load factors (around 50-60%) are weighing on profitability, with the major airline groups operating 30-64% fewer flights.

? Aviation showed its resilience in 2021 to a crisis that had paralysed economies in 2020. Despite rising infection levels and new COVID variants, European societies have learned to manage the crisis, and aviation has been able to provide basic connectivity, even if, at around 55%, flight choice within Europe lags well behind traffic levels.

? While all aviation actors have embraced the need to build back more sustainably, the pace of change – particularly in making Sustainable Aviation Fuels more available – has not yet started to accelerate. Investment in new technological solutions must continue.

? Omicron triggered travel restrictions that constrained flights in the first half of December to 75%, but eased in the second half (81%) owing to the holiday period. The situation for January is less clear, however.

? 2022 traffic is expected to recover to 70-90% of 2019 levels – even though right now, the evolving pandemic has seen traffic fall away from our optimistic forecast to converge increasingly on our baseline forecast.

EUROPEAN AVIATION: 2022 HEADLINE DATA

• Huge financial impact for all European stakeholders:
  • €18.5 billion net losses for airlines
  • €3.7 billion in-year revenue losses for ANSPs
  
• 1.4-1.5 billion fewer passengers than in 2019 (2020: 1.7 billion fewer)
  
• 106 million tonnes fewer CO2 emissions than in 2019
• 6.2 million flights 2021 vs. 11.1 million 2019 = annual loss of 4.9 million flights (2020: 5 million flights). 26,773 peak daily flights (27 Aug 2021), -28% compared to the 2019 peak of 37,228 (28 Jun 2019).
  • Intra-European traffic 43% down.
  • Europe-Rest of the World 48% down.
  • Low-cost carrier flights 54% down.
  • Scheduled carrier flights 52% down.
  
• Markets still down, but with much more variation: 8%-62% lower vs. 2020’s more uniformly bad 40-73%:
  1.3 million flights less in the UK (-62%)
  1.0 million flights less in Germany (-50%)
  0.7 million flights less in Spain (-44%)
  0.7 million flights less in France (-42%)
  0.6 million flights less in Italy (-47%).
  
• Leading aviation groups down by 30%-64%:
  Ryanair -43% flights (2021: 1,321 daily average flights, 2019: 2,323)
  Lufthansa Group -61% flights (2021: 1,263, 2019: 3,295)
  Air France-KLM -44% flights (2021: 1,150, 2019: 2,053)
  Turkish Airlines -30% flights (2021: 938, 2019: 1,331)
  IAG -57% flights (2021: 987, 2019: 2,342)
  easyJet -64% flights (2021: 607, 2019: 1,671)

Full report (pdf 22 pages)